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TSLA Signals Daily Equity

Tesla (TSLA) Signals-Daily

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These Tesla (TSLA) signals would have performed around 29 times better than buy-hold with an ROI of 1,043% for the period 24-Aug-16 to 27-Sep-18

TSLA Signals Daily

The trading signals for Tesla (TSLA) were for their reward/risk, longevity and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the Tesla (TSLA) signals

For the 528 day (2.1 year) period from Aug 24 2016 to Sep 27 2018, these signals for Tesla (TSLA) traded both long and short would have yielded $104,289 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 220.5%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $33,530, an annualized return of 102.0%. 54.8% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $3,606 (an annualized return of 15.9%) if you had bought and held the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

Not all signals are acted upon and signals are often reinforced in this type of strategy. If you are long in the security, buy signals are not acted on, for example. Similarly if you are short you must ignore sell signals. There were 194 buy signals and 205 sell signals for this particular TSLA strategy. These led to 77 round trip long trades of which 42 were profitable, and 77 short trades of which 34 were profitable. This is a daily strategy--daily OHLC data is used to derive all signals and there is at most one buy and sell signal and one trade per day.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 16% for long-short and 16% for long only. This compares to 35% for buy-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 10.38 compared to 0.40 for buy-hold, a factor of 25.9 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 4.92. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7.

Click here to see the list of Trades

These are the trades which would have occurred had you used the signals as directed. They are the results of a simulation, not actual trades.

Day of signal Buy or Sell Price L&S Value Next Open
8/29/2016 Sell 216.11 9,993
9/6/2016 Buy 202.24 10,791
9/8/2016 Sell 199.09 10,441
9/12/2016 Buy 198.16 10,417
9/13/2016 Sell 195.75 10,334
9/15/2016 Buy 199.67 10,151
9/21/2016 Sell 206.40 10,440
9/23/2016 Buy 209.33 10,139
9/27/2016 Sell 207.51 10,174
10/18/2016 Buy 199.17 10,600
10/20/2016 Sell 198.60 10,526
11/4/2016 Buy 192.06 10,944
11/9/2016 Sell 191.05 10,787
11/11/2016 Buy 187.22 11,034
11/14/2016 Sell 182.78 10,714
11/15/2016 Buy 185.74 10,351
11/21/2016 Sell 185.84 10,518
11/22/2016 Buy 188.85 10,430
11/29/2016 Sell 191.00 10,437
12/5/2016 Buy 185.47 10,729
12/29/2016 Sell 216.30 12,495
1/3/2017 Buy 218.34 12,159
1/30/2017 Sell 249.24 14,098
1/31/2017 Buy 253.28 13,843
2/15/2017 Sell 277.60 15,173
2/17/2017 Buy 270.11 15,876
2/22/2017 Sell 264.00 15,202
2/24/2017 Buy 256.75 15,084
2/27/2017 Sell 244.19 14,828
2/28/2017 Buy 248.15 14,928
3/8/2017 Sell 247.63 14,529
3/14/2017 Buy 250.10 14,767
3/21/2017 Sell 251.56 14,441
3/24/2017 Buy 259.84 13,992
4/5/2017 Sell 296.88 15,926
4/6/2017 Buy 301.69 15,437
4/11/2017 Sell 306.34 15,881
4/13/2017 Buy 301.51 16,182
5/2/2017 Sell 317.67 16,968
5/5/2017 Buy 302.83 18,220
5/15/2017 Sell 317.59 18,598
5/18/2017 Buy 311.97 19,126
5/22/2017 Sell 310.46 18,807
5/25/2017 Buy 316.06 18,525
6/9/2017 Sell 357.99 20,888
6/12/2017 Buy 363.79 20,752
6/15/2017 Sell 377.98 21,323
6/22/2017 Buy 384.11 20,872
6/26/2017 Sell 376.40 20,528
7/11/2017 Buy 321.12 24,209
7/13/2017 Sell 323.19 23,666
7/18/2017 Buy 322.64 24,103
7/27/2017 Sell 336.89 24,724
7/31/2017 Buy 340.94 23,129
8/1/2017 Sell 318.94 22,825
8/2/2017 Buy 324.11 23,910
8/10/2017 Sell 356.97 24,702
8/23/2017 Buy 344.48 26,149
8/25/2017 Sell 347.28 25,746
8/29/2017 Buy 344.98 26,255
9/5/2017 Sell 349.50 26,228
9/7/2017 Buy 351.58 25,865
9/8/2017 Sell 351.35 26,026
9/11/2017 Buy 357.04 26,124
9/19/2017 Sell 373.00 26,720
10/3/2017 Buy 341.34 29,815
10/9/2017 Sell 346.80 29,423
10/10/2017 Buy 352.42 29,054
10/16/2017 Sell 350.91 28,795
10/18/2017 Buy 361.74 27,416
10/19/2017 Sell 352.69 27,181
10/31/2017 Buy 325.42 29,883
11/1/2017 Sell 300.13 26,980
11/2/2017 Buy 304.99 26,052
11/3/2017 Sell 307.00 26,690
11/7/2017 Buy 305.90 26,737
11/9/2017 Sell 302.50 26,461
11/10/2017 Buy 307.40 25,403
11/15/2017 Sell 313.99 26,562
11/21/2017 Buy 315.90 26,459
11/29/2017 Sell 308.56 25,760
12/5/2017 Buy 306.89 25,312
12/15/2017 Sell 344.90 29,077
1/2/2018 Buy 317.05 31,801
1/4/2018 Sell 316.62 31,353
1/8/2018 Buy 321.12 32,244
1/24/2018 Sell 348.27 33,492
1/29/2018 Buy 345.36 33,737
2/2/2018 Sell 337.97 33,022
2/5/2018 Buy 343.45 30,749
2/6/2018 Sell 338.99 32,038
2/7/2018 Buy 344.48 31,398
2/8/2018 Sell 319.93 29,245
2/13/2018 Buy 320.12 29,279
2/27/2018 Sell 352.57 32,161
3/2/2018 Buy 332.28 34,009
3/6/2018 Sell 325.44 33,284
3/7/2018 Buy 330.71 32,944
3/9/2018 Sell 328.61 32,509
3/12/2018 Buy 333.93 31,459
3/13/2018 Sell 336.76 32,225
3/21/2018 Buy 315.28 34,116
3/22/2018 Sell 311.25 33,815
3/29/2018 Buy 260.65 38,638
4/2/2018 Sell 269.82 40,668
4/4/2018 Buy 256.88 47,990
4/9/2018 Sell 298.97 49,573
4/10/2018 Buy 303.81 48,263
4/12/2018 Sell 303.60 48,708
4/18/2018 Buy 295.80 49,150
4/20/2018 Sell 291.29 49,171
4/26/2018 Buy 283.27 50,887
5/3/2018 Sell 283.00 50,451
5/4/2018 Buy 287.58 51,330
5/11/2018 Sell 303.32 52,320
5/16/2018 Buy 288.43 54,394
5/18/2018 Sell 281.33 53,511
5/21/2018 Buy 285.89 52,974
5/22/2018 Sell 277.76 51,119
5/29/2018 Buy 283.02 50,185
5/31/2018 Sell 285.86 50,626
6/1/2018 Buy 290.49 50,451
6/5/2018 Sell 300.50 51,493
6/6/2018 Buy 305.37 52,433
6/13/2018 Sell 347.63 57,640
6/14/2018 Buy 353.26 56,785
6/19/2018 Sell 358.04 57,445
6/20/2018 Buy 363.84 56,215
6/21/2018 Sell 351.54 54,577
6/25/2018 Buy 335.47 57,157
6/26/2018 Sell 345.00 58,665
6/27/2018 Buy 350.59 57,383
6/29/2018 Sell 360.07 59,247
7/6/2018 Buy 309.89 67,947
7/11/2018 Sell 321.43 69,989
7/17/2018 Buy 313.81 74,187
7/19/2018 Sell 321.23 73,313
7/25/2018 Buy 301.55 78,643
7/27/2018 Sell 295.90 76,320
7/31/2018 Buy 296.98 76,284
8/6/2018 Sell 343.84 88,007
8/7/2018 Buy 349.41 91,443
8/9/2018 Sell 354.00 87,691
8/10/2018 Buy 359.73 86,590
8/13/2018 Sell 358.45 85,934
8/20/2018 Buy 296.43 105,612
8/27/2018 Sell 318.41 108,251
9/6/2018 Buy 289.41 106,133
9/7/2018 Sell 273.26 111,489
9/10/2018 Buy 277.69 110,373
9/11/2018 Sell 281.44 111,137
9/12/2018 Buy 286.00 110,095
9/18/2018 Sell 280.51 107,210
9/19/2018 Buy 285.05 112,306
9/28/2018 Last 308.92 114,289

TSLA Signals Equity

Tesla (TSLA) Signals-Weekly

Posted on by

These Tesla (TSLA) signals would have performed around 36.7 times better than buy-hold with an ROI of 54,010% for the period 28-Jun-10 to 21-Sep-18

TSLA Signals Weekly

The trading signals for Tesla (TSLA) were selected for their reward/risk, longevity and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the Tesla (TSLA) signals

For the 430 week (8.2 year) period from Jun 28 2010 to Sep 21 2018, these signals for Tesla (TSLA) traded both long and short would have yielded $5,400,966 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 115.0%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $1,231,823, an annualized return of 79.8%. 62.6% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $147,095 (an annualized return of 39.8%) if you had bought and held the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

Not all signals are acted upon and signals are often reinforced in this type of strategy. If you are long in the security, buy signals are not acted on, for example. Similarly if you are short you must ignore sell signals. There were 375 buy signals and 275 sell signals for this particular TSLA strategy .These led to 142 round trip long trades of which 84 were profitable, and 143 short trades of which 83 were profitable. This is a weekly strategy; weekly OHLC data is used to derive all signals and there is at most one buy and sell signal and one trade per week.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 37% for long-short and 32% for long only. This compares to 44% for buy-hold. The reward/risk for trading long and short was 2.71 compared to 0.82 for buy-hold, a factor of 3.3 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 2.13. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7.

Click here to see the list of Trades

Week of signal Buy or Sell Price L&S Value Next Open
6/28/2010 Sell 19.00 10,000
7/5/2010 Buy 17.95 10,539
7/12/2010 Sell 21.37 12,533
7/19/2010 Buy 21.50 12,442
7/26/2010 Sell 20.50 11,850
8/2/2010 Buy 19.90 12,182
8/9/2010 Sell 18.45 11,281
8/16/2010 Buy 19.09 10,875
8/23/2010 Sell 19.70 11,209
8/30/2010 Buy 20.61 10,677
9/6/2010 Sell 20.89 10,808
9/13/2010 Buy 20.67 10,908
9/20/2010 Sell 20.40 10,752
9/27/2010 Buy 20.43 10,722
10/4/2010 Sell 20.44 10,713
10/11/2010 Buy 20.52 10,657
10/18/2010 Sell 20.94 10,861
10/25/2010 Buy 21.94 10,329
12/13/2010 Sell 31.64 14,881
12/20/2010 Buy 28.02 16,569
12/27/2010 Sell 26.84 15,858
1/3/2011 Buy 28.17 15,058
1/10/2011 Sell 25.48 13,606
1/17/2011 Buy 23.53 14,633
1/24/2011 Sell 24.05 14,943
1/31/2011 Buy 23.26 15,420
2/7/2011 Sell 23.64 15,657
2/14/2011 Buy 22.88 16,147
2/21/2011 Sell 23.74 16,740
3/7/2011 Buy 23.82 16,669
3/14/2011 Sell 23.05 16,116
3/21/2011 Buy 22.70 16,347
3/28/2011 Sell 26.83 19,307
4/4/2011 Buy 26.47 19,552
4/11/2011 Sell 25.13 18,549
4/18/2011 Buy 26.70 17,376
5/16/2011 Sell 27.62 17,960
5/23/2011 Buy 29.69 16,600
6/6/2011 Sell 28.07 15,681
6/13/2011 Buy 26.29 16,661
6/20/2011 Sell 27.73 17,560
7/4/2011 Buy 28.40 17,121
7/11/2011 Sell 27.34 16,468
7/18/2011 Buy 29.01 15,448
7/25/2011 Sell 28.67 15,253
8/1/2011 Buy 23.10 18,203
8/8/2011 Sell 26.62 20,962
8/15/2011 Buy 23.11 23,712
8/22/2011 Sell 24.22 24,837
8/29/2011 Buy 22.50 26,587
9/5/2011 Sell 22.50 26,573
9/12/2011 Buy 24.95 23,666
9/19/2011 Sell 26.52 25,141
9/26/2011 Buy 24.95 26,615
10/3/2011 Sell 27.31 29,119
10/17/2011 Buy 27.87 28,508
12/5/2011 Sell 30.44 31,122
12/12/2011 Buy 28.09 33,511
12/19/2011 Sell 27.66 32,984
12/26/2011 Buy 28.94 31,444
1/2/2012 Sell 27.00 29,322
1/9/2012 Buy 26.62 29,721
1/16/2012 Sell 26.81 29,919
1/23/2012 Buy 29.49 26,914
4/9/2012 Sell 33.41 30,478
4/16/2012 Buy 32.86 30,965
4/23/2012 Sell 33.27 31,338
4/30/2012 Buy 31.96 32,558
5/7/2012 Sell 31.92 32,503
5/14/2012 Buy 27.58 36,908
5/21/2012 Sell 30.01 40,146
5/28/2012 Buy 28.03 42,781
6/4/2012 Sell 30.31 46,246
6/11/2012 Buy 29.94 46,797
6/18/2012 Sell 33.94 53,035
6/25/2012 Buy 31.35 57,068
7/2/2012 Sell 30.94 56,308
7/9/2012 Buy 34.32 50,143
7/16/2012 Sell 31.05 45,351
7/23/2012 Buy 29.51 47,586
7/30/2012 Sell 27.55 44,412
8/6/2012 Buy 29.69 40,948
8/13/2012 Sell 30.15 41,568
8/20/2012 Buy 29.57 42,354
8/27/2012 Sell 28.52 40,836
9/3/2012 Buy 29.20 39,848
9/10/2012 Sell 32.35 44,133
9/24/2012 Buy 29.50 48,007
10/1/2012 Sell 28.86 46,952
10/8/2012 Buy 28.02 48,304
10/15/2012 Sell 27.99 48,239
10/22/2012 Buy 27.70 48,724
10/29/2012 Sell 29.80 52,404
11/12/2012 Buy 32.07 48,398
1/7/2013 Sell 33.08 49,909
1/14/2013 Buy 34.56 47,662
2/18/2013 Sell 36.15 49,841
2/25/2013 Buy 34.77 51,729
3/4/2013 Sell 38.87 57,815
3/11/2013 Buy 35.30 63,111
3/18/2013 Sell 37.10 66,315
4/8/2013 Buy 43.50 54,861
10/7/2013 Sell 175.00 220,692
10/14/2013 Buy 183.28 210,236
10/21/2013 Sell 170.18 195,196
10/28/2013 Buy 165.00 201,123
11/4/2013 Sell 141.00 171,855
11/11/2013 Buy 135.27 178,825
11/18/2013 Sell 124.50 164,573
11/25/2013 Buy 126.35 162,114
12/2/2013 Sell 137.00 175,764
12/9/2013 Buy 148.48 161,022
12/16/2013 Sell 144.85 157,071
12/23/2013 Buy 151.12 150,258
12/30/2013 Sell 150.00 149,131
1/6/2014 Buy 145.78 153,312
1/13/2014 Sell 171.24 180,074
1/27/2014 Buy 182.89 167,809
3/24/2014 Sell 216.50 198,633
3/31/2014 Buy 205.81 208,427
4/7/2014 Sell 207.60 210,226
4/14/2014 Buy 197.08 220,865
4/21/2014 Sell 200.00 224,123
4/28/2014 Buy 209.48 213,486
5/5/2014 Sell 183.87 187,372
5/12/2014 Buy 190.72 180,377
5/19/2014 Sell 208.52 197,198
6/2/2014 Buy 207.95 197,723
6/9/2014 Sell 206.76 196,578
6/16/2014 Buy 229.51 174,934
7/7/2014 Sell 219.99 167,664
7/14/2014 Buy 217.25 169,738
7/21/2014 Sell 224.25 175,193
7/28/2014 Buy 234.38 167,265
9/15/2014 Sell 255.00 181,967
9/22/2014 Buy 244.00 189,802
9/29/2014 Sell 259.13 201,558
10/6/2014 Buy 238.57 217,536
10/13/2014 Sell 226.72 206,717
10/20/2014 Buy 234.25 199,837
10/27/2014 Sell 243.00 207,287
11/3/2014 Buy 239.11 210,592
11/10/2014 Sell 257.49 226,766
11/17/2014 Buy 245.20 237,575
11/24/2014 Sell 241.16 233,647
12/1/2014 Buy 221.54 252,641
12/8/2014 Sell 209.29 238,658
12/15/2014 Buy 220.00 226,431
12/22/2014 Sell 226.90 233,519
12/29/2014 Buy 214.55 246,215
1/5/2015 Sell 203.05 233,004
1/12/2015 Buy 193.87 243,524
1/19/2015 Sell 201.83 253,509
1/26/2015 Buy 203.97 250,807
2/2/2015 Sell 215.38 264,823
2/9/2015 Buy 205.70 276,711
2/16/2015 Sell 215.66 290,095
2/23/2015 Buy 202.70 307,514
3/2/2015 Sell 194.39 294,893
3/9/2015 Buy 192.00 298,505
3/16/2015 Sell 198.50 308,597
3/23/2015 Buy 185.85 328,249
3/30/2015 Sell 198.00 349,694
4/13/2015 Buy 206.78 334,173
7/27/2015 Sell 266.29 430,333
8/3/2015 Buy 238.15 475,794
8/10/2015 Sell 255.56 510,563
8/17/2015 Buy 202.79 615,974
8/24/2015 Sell 245.62 746,055
9/7/2015 Buy 251.10 729,396
9/14/2015 Sell 263.98 766,796
9/21/2015 Buy 257.35 786,041
9/28/2015 Sell 248.84 760,034
10/5/2015 Buy 222.99 838,974
10/12/2015 Sell 226.50 852,166
10/19/2015 Buy 211.38 909,038
10/26/2015 Sell 208.92 898,445
11/2/2015 Buy 232.99 794,920
11/9/2015 Sell 206.09 703,128
11/16/2015 Buy 217.35 664,697
11/23/2015 Sell 231.79 708,843
12/7/2015 Buy 217.51 752,500
12/14/2015 Sell 231.69 801,543
12/21/2015 Buy 231.49 802,221
12/28/2015 Sell 230.72 799,538
1/4/2016 Buy 214.01 857,431
1/11/2016 Sell 208.71 836,183
1/18/2016 Buy 200.06 870,825
1/25/2016 Sell 188.76 821,624
2/1/2016 Buy 157.10 959,417
2/8/2016 Sell 158.70 969,175
2/15/2016 Buy 170.12 899,419
2/22/2016 Sell 192.40 1,017,199
2/29/2016 Buy 197.68 989,270
5/2/2016 Sell 215.72 1,079,536
5/9/2016 Buy 208.15 1,117,404
5/16/2016 Sell 219.87 1,180,306
5/23/2016 Buy 223.04 1,163,275
5/30/2016 Sell 218.00 1,136,975
6/6/2016 Buy 219.50 1,129,138
6/13/2016 Sell 219.50 1,129,124
6/20/2016 Buy 190.86 1,276,436
6/27/2016 Sell 209.73 1,402,621
7/18/2016 Buy 222.27 1,318,743
8/1/2016 Sell 228.00 1,352,725
8/8/2016 Buy 226.02 1,364,458
8/15/2016 Sell 224.17 1,353,276
8/22/2016 Buy 220.15 1,377,530
8/29/2016 Sell 199.02 1,245,301
9/5/2016 Buy 195.00 1,270,441
9/12/2016 Sell 207.00 1,348,608
9/19/2016 Buy 206.50 1,351,851
9/26/2016 Sell 212.30 1,389,807
10/3/2016 Buy 201.35 1,461,476
10/10/2016 Sell 197.05 1,430,251
10/17/2016 Buy 201.00 1,401,567
10/24/2016 Sell 202.49 1,411,942
10/31/2016 Buy 193.59 1,473,987
11/7/2016 Sell 188.00 1,431,411
11/14/2016 Buy 185.04 1,453,934
11/21/2016 Sell 195.48 1,535,952
11/28/2016 Buy 182.51 1,637,847
12/5/2016 Sell 192.80 1,730,176
12/12/2016 Buy 202.49 1,643,205
2/27/2017 Sell 247.91 2,011,774
3/6/2017 Buy 244.82 2,036,835
3/13/2017 Sell 260.60 2,168,106
3/20/2017 Buy 260.60 2,168,092
7/3/2017 Sell 312.90 2,603,194
7/10/2017 Buy 325.54 2,498,020
7/17/2017 Sell 330.24 2,534,071
7/24/2017 Buy 335.50 2,493,695
7/31/2017 Sell 357.35 2,656,087
8/14/2017 Buy 345.82 2,741,773
8/21/2017 Sell 347.28 2,753,334
8/28/2017 Buy 353.80 2,701,628
9/5/2017 Sell 351.35 2,682,905
9/11/2017 Buy 380.25 2,462,211
9/18/2017 Sell 353.15 2,286,718
9/25/2017 Buy 342.52 2,355,536
10/2/2017 Sell 349.65 2,404,555
10/9/2017 Buy 353.76 2,376,276
10/16/2017 Sell 349.88 2,350,200
10/23/2017 Buy 319.18 2,556,403
10/30/2017 Sell 307.00 2,458,836
11/6/2017 Buy 300.13 2,513,845
11/13/2017 Sell 313.79 2,628,245
11/20/2017 Buy 313.25 2,632,754
11/27/2017 Sell 306.50 2,576,009
12/4/2017 Buy 314.63 2,507,665
12/11/2017 Sell 344.90 2,748,909
12/18/2017 Buy 323.83 2,916,827
12/26/2017 Sell 312.00 2,810,257
1/2/2018 Buy 316.00 2,774,214
1/8/2018 Sell 337.54 2,963,303
1/16/2018 Buy 349.40 2,859,169
2/5/2018 Sell 316.13 2,586,904
2/12/2018 Buy 334.47 2,436,813
2/20/2018 Sell 353.50 2,575,444
2/26/2018 Buy 332.39 2,729,228
3/5/2018 Sell 328.61 2,698,176
3/12/2018 Buy 316.50 2,797,596
3/19/2018 Sell 307.34 2,716,615
3/26/2018 Buy 256.26 3,168,103
4/2/2018 Sell 300.37 3,713,414
4/16/2018 Buy 291.29 3,825,654
4/23/2018 Sell 293.61 3,856,110
4/30/2018 Buy 297.50 3,805,006
5/7/2018 Sell 303.32 3,879,430
5/14/2018 Buy 281.33 4,160,666
5/21/2018 Sell 278.51 4,118,946
5/29/2018 Buy 294.34 3,884,819
6/4/2018 Sell 322.51 4,256,605
6/18/2018 Buy 330.12 4,156,151
7/2/2018 Sell 311.99 3,927,884
7/9/2018 Buy 311.71 3,931,395
7/16/2018 Sell 301.84 3,806,897
7/23/2018 Buy 295.90 3,881,800
7/30/2018 Sell 345.46 4,531,945
8/13/2018 Buy 291.70 5,237,186
8/20/2018 Sell 318.00 5,709,362
8/27/2018 Buy 296.94 6,087,458
9/4/2018 Sell 273.26 5,601,990
9/10/2018 Buy 290.04 5,257,976
9/17/2018 Sell 298.48 5,410,966

NUGT Signals Weekly Equity

Gold Miners Bull 3X (NUGT) Signals-Weekly

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These Gold Miners Bull 3X (NUGT) signals traded as directed would have performed around 1913.6 times better than short-hold with an ROI of 190,993% for the period 06-Dec-10 to 21-Sep-18

NUGT Signals Weekly

The trading signals for Gold Miners Bull 3X (NUGT) were selected for their reward/risk and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the Gold Miners Bull 3X (NUGT) signals

For the 407 week (7.8 year) period from Dec 6 2010 to Sep 21 2018, these signals for Gold Miners Bull 3X (NUGT) traded both long and short would have yielded $19,099,299 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 164.1%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $260,371, an annualized return of 52.8%. 23.2% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $9,981 (an annualized return of 9.3%) if you had shorted the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

Not all signals are acted upon and signals are often reinforced in this type of strategy. If you are long in the security, buy signals are not acted on, for example. Similarly if you are short you must ignore sell signals. There were 68 buy signals and 86 sell signals for this particular NUGT strategy .These led to 39 round trip long trades of which 27 were profitable, and 39 short trades of which 25 were profitable. This is a weekly strategy; weekly OHLC data is used to derive all signals and there is at most one buy and sell signal and one trade per week.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 47% for long-short and 46% for long only. This compares to 28% for short-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 3.13 compared to 0.28 for short-hold, a factor of 11.1 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 1.03. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7. Returns have been adjusted for the worst case effects of 2 dividends

Click here to see the list of Trades

Week of signal Buy or Sell Price L&S Value Next Open
2/14/2011 Sell 7,474.00 9,993
8/8/2011 Buy 6,890.00 10,729
8/22/2011 Sell 7,672.00 11,967
10/24/2011 Buy 6,896.00 12,824
11/28/2011 Sell 6,022.00 11,481
1/23/2012 Buy 5,194.00 11,624
2/20/2012 Sell 4,916.00 11,415
5/21/2012 Buy 2,296.00 18,033
5/28/2012 Sell 2,584.00 19,663
8/20/2012 Buy 2,530.00 20,108
9/3/2012 Sell 2,970.00 23,535
9/10/2012 Buy 3,598.00 18,761
9/17/2012 Sell 3,630.00 18,696
4/22/2013 Buy 476.00 36,481
5/27/2013 Sell 460.00 33,738
7/8/2013 Buy 226.40 50,767
7/15/2013 Sell 298.00 66,926
7/22/2013 Buy 314.00 63,964
8/12/2013 Sell 373.20 75,242
9/16/2013 Buy 220.44 102,776
10/21/2013 Sell 226.36 108,860
12/9/2013 Buy 107.44 169,993
12/30/2013 Sell 123.56 190,935
1/13/2014 Buy 144.64 153,092
1/20/2014 Sell 147.84 161,836
2/10/2014 Buy 201.16 105,943
3/10/2014 Sell 225.80 116,112
6/9/2014 Buy 142.20 160,922
6/16/2014 Sell 174.20 194,873
10/6/2014 Buy 81.56 314,011
11/17/2014 Sell 61.16 223,820
12/1/2014 Buy 49.44 277,700
1/5/2015 Sell 63.96 345,008
1/12/2015 Buy 74.72 306,155
1/19/2015 Sell 66.44 255,141
3/16/2015 Buy 45.04 343,896
3/23/2015 Sell 39.48 295,653
4/27/2015 Buy 49.64 229,992
5/11/2015 Sell 53.84 238,116
8/10/2015 Buy 15.36 435,931
8/17/2015 Sell 17.28 459,308
9/14/2015 Buy 14.04 522,106
10/5/2015 Sell 19.74 766,830
11/30/2015 Buy 12.57 1,005,829
1/4/2016 Sell 11.56 961,562
1/25/2016 Buy 10.27 1,101,500
2/1/2016 Sell 18.64 1,940,208
2/8/2016 Buy 22.75 1,289,545
2/22/2016 Sell 21.96 1,459,697
2/29/2016 Buy 24.29 1,353,655
3/14/2016 Sell 26.17 1,405,630
4/4/2016 Buy 28.50 1,370,928
4/11/2016 Sell 32.32 1,451,768
4/18/2016 Buy 32.57 1,471,037
4/25/2016 Sell 49.20 2,175,762
5/30/2016 Buy 39.96 2,561,343
6/6/2016 Sell 45.97 2,972,913
6/20/2016 Buy 45.58 3,083,235
6/27/2016 Sell 60.56 3,983,540
7/25/2016 Buy 64.20 3,703,520
8/1/2016 Sell 61.60 3,592,239
9/19/2016 Buy 40.52 4,914,330
10/17/2016 Sell 29.42 3,500,703
10/31/2016 Buy 29.76 3,132,347
11/14/2016 Sell 35.16 4,088,083
12/26/2016 Buy 30.56 4,756,036
1/3/2017 Sell 39.64 5,996,463
1/30/2017 Buy 47.56 5,040,504
2/6/2017 Sell 50.08 5,052,597
3/13/2017 Buy 35.68 6,571,044
4/10/2017 Sell 44.76 8,160,916
5/8/2017 Buy 34.61 10,561,117
5/15/2017 Sell 36.03 10,422,256
8/28/2017 Buy 40.17 9,495,657
9/5/2017 Sell 40.01 9,187,924
2/12/2018 Buy 26.94 11,714,228
4/9/2018 Sell 27.41 12,433,631
9/17/2018 Buy 13.49 19,109,299
9/24/2018 Last 13.75 19,109,299

Update 10/28/2019

The strategy showed positive returns up until June 2019 when it took a downward turn.

 

Optimum parameters for this period were 11.17% (buy side) and 9.74% (sell side) these would have returned around 78% annualized vs. 129% for buy-hold.

SQ Signals Equity

Square (SQ) Signals-Daily

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These Square (SQ) signals traded as directed would have performed around 2.9 times better than buy-hold with an ROI of 2039% for the period 22-Aug-16 to 25-Sep-18

SQ Signals

The trading signals for Square (SQ) were selected for their reward/risk and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the Square (SQ) signals

For the 528 day (2.1 year) period from Aug 22 2016 to Sep 25 2018, these signals for Square (SQ) traded both long and short would have yielded $203,931 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 332.5%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $124,566, an annualized return of 246.5%. 87.6% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $70,942 (an annualized return of 171.8%) if you had bought and held the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

Not all signals are acted upon and signals are often reinforced in this type of strategy. If you are long in the security, buy signals are not acted on, for example. Similarly if you are short you must ignore sell signals. There were 485 buy signals and 57 sell signals for this particular SQ strategy .These led to 43 round trip long trades of which 36 were profitable, and 43 short trades of which 25 were profitable. This is a daily strategy; daily OHLC data is used to derive all signals and there is at most one buy and sell signal and one trade per day.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 13% for long-short and 13% for long only. This compares to 30% for buy-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 18.86 compared to 4.94 for buy-hold, a factor of 3.8 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 13.98. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7.

Click here to see the list of Trades

Day of signal Buy or Sell Price L&S Value Next Open
8/22/2016 Buy 11.78 10,484
8/23/2016 Sell 12.40 10,512
8/24/2016 Buy 12.16 10,719
11/2/2016 Sell 11.69 10,274
11/3/2016 Buy 11.99 9,971
11/14/2016 Sell 12.32 10,258
11/15/2016 Buy 12.03 10,459
12/7/2016 Sell 14.12 12,293
12/8/2016 Buy 13.94 12,471
2/23/2017 Sell 16.95 15,106
3/1/2017 Buy 17.22 14,835
3/28/2017 Sell 17.22 14,838
3/29/2017 Buy 17.22 14,850
5/4/2017 Sell 19.75 16,988
5/5/2017 Buy 19.78 16,905
5/23/2017 Sell 21.64 18,528
5/24/2017 Buy 21.92 18,316
6/13/2017 Sell 23.59 19,652
6/14/2017 Buy 23.47 19,444
7/11/2017 Sell 25.61 21,524
7/13/2017 Buy 25.98 21,240
9/14/2017 Sell 28.23 23,021
9/15/2017 Buy 28.50 22,859
10/26/2017 Sell 34.69 27,722
10/27/2017 Buy 35.20 27,766
10/31/2017 Sell 37.48 29,055
11/2/2017 Buy 36.07 30,267
11/10/2017 Sell 39.13 32,676
11/14/2017 Buy 39.74 33,293
11/17/2017 Sell 44.99 36,386
11/27/2017 Buy 41.02 38,493
11/28/2017 Sell 43.20 41,673
11/29/2017 Buy 39.13 45,748
11/30/2017 Sell 39.34 45,815
12/1/2017 Buy 38.22 47,340
12/6/2017 Sell 39.33 48,454
12/7/2017 Buy 38.73 50,290
1/3/2018 Sell 38.30 48,613
1/4/2018 Buy 38.10 49,224
1/5/2018 Sell 41.00 52,557
1/10/2018 Buy 40.84 52,994
1/11/2018 Sell 42.37 54,710
1/12/2018 Buy 41.25 56,006
1/22/2018 Sell 45.06 61,314
1/24/2018 Buy 44.32 63,024
1/31/2018 Sell 45.75 64,303
2/1/2018 Buy 44.45 65,298
2/7/2018 Sell 42.85 63,723
2/8/2018 Buy 39.50 69,508
2/12/2018 Sell 39.85 69,285
2/13/2018 Buy 42.11 64,876
2/15/2018 Sell 44.03 68,307
2/16/2018 Buy 44.11 68,864
3/5/2018 Sell 49.55 76,562
3/6/2018 Buy 49.60 75,083
3/7/2018 Sell 50.72 78,183
3/13/2018 Buy 51.83 78,479
3/14/2018 Sell 55.10 81,268
3/15/2018 Buy 54.84 81,161
3/20/2018 Sell 57.81 86,045
3/22/2018 Buy 55.16 88,181
3/27/2018 Sell 50.40 82,197
3/28/2018 Buy 47.39 87,937
3/29/2018 Sell 48.88 89,816
4/2/2018 Buy 47.68 93,975
4/5/2018 Sell 47.50 91,646
4/6/2018 Buy 45.87 95,314
4/18/2018 Sell 51.13 105,631
4/19/2018 Buy 50.63 107,198
4/26/2018 Sell 48.00 101,096
4/27/2018 Buy 47.57 102,266
5/8/2018 Sell 53.15 113,937
5/11/2018 Buy 54.73 111,182
5/21/2018 Sell 56.40 113,895
5/22/2018 Buy 54.63 116,466
6/12/2018 Sell 62.25 133,824
6/13/2018 Buy 62.50 134,765
6/20/2018 Sell 68.78 146,650
6/21/2018 Buy 67.10 152,613
8/2/2018 Sell 72.10 161,397
8/3/2018 Buy 68.36 172,860
8/13/2018 Sell 73.67 182,928
8/14/2018 Buy 74.97 178,535
8/29/2018 Sell 85.72 205,437
9/6/2018 Buy 88.54 196,690
9/25/2018 Sell 95.35 213,931
9/26/2018 Last 95.35 213,931

 

TQQQ Signals Equity

TQQQ Signals-Daily

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These TQQQ signals would have performed around 6.6 times better than buy-hold with an ROI of 1530% for the period 18-Aug-16 to 21-Sep-18

TQQQ Signals

The trading signals for TQQQ were selected for their reward/risk and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the TQQQ signals

For the 528 day (2.1 year) period from Aug 18 2016 to Sep 21 2018, these signals for TQQQ traded both long and short would have yielded $152,973 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 279.8%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $66,873, an annualized return of 165.1%. 82.8% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $23,205 (an annualized return of 77.5%) if you had bought and held the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

Not all signals are acted upon and signals are often reinforced in this type of strategy. If you are long in the security, buy signals are not acted on, for example. Similarly if you are short you must ignore sell signals. There were 293 buy signals and 21 sell signals for this particular TQQQ strategy .These led to 21 round trip long trades of which 18 were profitable, and 20 short trades of which 17 were profitable. This is a daily strategy; daily OHLC data is used to derive all signals and there is at most one buy and sell signal and one trade per day.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 20% for long-short and 20% for long only. This compares to 31% for buy-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 11.11 compared to 2.14 for buy-hold, a factor of 5.2 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 6.56. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7. Returns have been adjusted for the worst case effects of 8 dividends.

TQQQ Signals Daily-List of trades

Day Buy/Sell Price
9/17/2018 Buy $68.62
9/14/2018 Sell $69.79
9/7/2018 Buy $65.36
8/28/2018 Sell $70.32
6/26/2018 Buy $57.73
6/21/2018 Sell $63.78
5/2/2018 Buy $49.65
4/27/2018 Sell $50.83
4/25/2018 Buy $45.89
4/18/2018 Sell $52.80
3/26/2018 Buy $49.67
2/27/2018 Sell $58.75
2/7/2018 Buy $51.02
1/24/2018 Sell $59.67
12/20/2017 Buy $48.62
12/19/2017 Sell $48.69
11/20/2017 Buy $44.81
11/17/2017 Sell $45.30
11/13/2017 Buy $44.11
10/30/2017 Sell $42.45
8/18/2017 Buy $35.06
8/15/2017 Sell $37.25
8/11/2017 Buy $35.03
7/20/2017 Sell $37.54
7/14/2017 Buy $35.46
7/13/2017 Sell $34.95
6/21/2017 Buy $34.29
6/20/2017 Sell $34.79
4/26/2017 Buy $31.22
4/25/2017 Sell $30.82
2/1/2017 Buy $25.03
1/26/2017 Sell $25.15
11/9/2016 Buy $19.74
11/8/2016 Sell $20.00
10/26/2016 Buy $21.22
10/25/2016 Sell $21.87
10/20/2016 Buy $20.85
10/19/2016 Sell $20.90
9/26/2016 Buy $20.91
9/23/2016 Sell $21.60
8/22/2016 Buy $20.60

Update Oct 20th 2019


In the subsequent 57 weeks since this initial posting, this algorithm has increased by 79%, an annual percentage rate of 72% compared with a 6.6% loss for the underlying TQQQ.
Drawdown was 26% compared with 56% for TQQQ so the risk-reward was 15 times better than TQQQ short-hold. 31 signals, 9 trades, 5 of them good. Return on 10K was $7909.
Optimum parameters have moved slightly, now 4.11% and 10.55%, but the above metrics are for the original parameters.

YANG Signals Daily Equity

YANG Signals-Daily

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These YANG signals traded as directed would have performed around 56.3 times better than short-hold with an ROI of 3,547% for the period 18-Aug-16 to 21-Sep-18

YANG Signals Daily

The trading signals for YANG were selected from over a million backtest results for their reward/risk and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the YANG signals

For the 528 day (2.1 year) period from Aug 18 2016 to Sep 21 2018, these signals for YANG traded both long and short would have yielded $354,655 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 458.1%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $34,367, an annualized return of 103.9%. 25.9% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $6,305 (an annualized return of 26.3%) if you had short sold the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

Not all signals are acted upon and signals are often reinforced in this type of strategy. If you are long in the security, buy signals are not acted on, for example. Similarly if you are short you must ignore sell signals. There were 149 buy signals and 217 sell signals for this particular YANG strategy. In turn, these led to 20 round trip long trades of which 19 were profitable, and 21 short trades of which 20 were profitable. This is a daily strategy, meaning that daily OHLC data is used to derive all signals and there is at most one buy and sell signal and one trade per day.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 22% for long-short and 13% for long only. This compares to 80% drawdown for buy-hold and 28% drawdown for short-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 17.14 compared to 0.80 for short and hold, a factor of 21.5 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 5.74. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7.

YINN Signals Daily Equity

Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull (YINN) Signals-Daily

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The Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull (YINN) signals shown below and traded as directed would have performed around 88.5 times better than buy-hold with an ROI of 3,159% for the period 17-Aug-16 to 20-Sep-18

YINN Signals Daily

The trading signals for Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull (YINN) were selected for their reward/risk and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull (YINN) signals

For the 528 day (2.1 year) period from Aug 17 2016 to Sep 20 2018, these signals for Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull (YINN) traded both long and short would have yielded $315,911 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 428.9%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $69,290, an annualized return of 169.1%. 59.6% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $3,568 (an annualized return of 15.7%) if you had bought and held the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

Not all signals are acted upon and signals are often reinforced in this type of strategy. If you are long in the security, buy signals are not acted on, for example. Similarly if you are short you must ignore sell signals. There were 126 buy signals and 83 sell signals for this particular YINN strategy .These led to 43 round trip long trades of which 27 were profitable, and 43 short trades of which 30 were profitable. This is a daily strategy; daily OHLC data is used to derive all signals and there is at most one buy and sell signal and one trade per day.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 19% for long-short and 21% for long only. This compares to 63% for buy-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 18.17 compared to 0.23 for buy-hold, a factor of 78.7 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 6.44. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7.

YINN Signals Weekly Equity

YINN Signals-Weekly

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These Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull (YINN) signals (weekly) traded as directed would have performed around 5604 times better than short-hold with an ROI of 254,385% for the period 30-Nov-2009 to 14-Sep-2018

YINN Signals Weekly

The Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull (YINN) signals (weekly) shown above were selected for their reward/risk and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull (YINN) signals

For the 459 week (8.8 year) period from Nov 30 2009 to Sep 14 2018, these signals for Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull (YINN) traded both long and short would have yielded $25,438,510 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 144.3%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $575,345, an annualized return of 59.0%. 61.8% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $4,539 (an annualized return of 4.4%) if you had short sold the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

Not all signals are acted upon and signals are often reinforced in this type of strategy. If you are long in the security, buy signals are not acted on, for example. Similarly if you are short you must ignore sell signals. There were 81 buy signals and 55 sell signals for this particular YINN strategy. These led to 44 round trip long trades of which 31 were profitable, and 44 short trades of which 38 were profitable. This is a weekly strategy where weekly OHLC data is used to derive all signals and there is at most one buy and sell signal and one trade per week.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 76% for long-short and 76% for long only. This compares to 86% for buy-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 1.78 compared to 0.05 for short-hold, a factor of 35.6 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 0.73. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7.

TQQQ Signals Equity

TQQQ Signals-Weekly

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These TQQQ signals (weekly) traded as directed would have performed around 20.8 times better than buy-hold with an ROI of 85,602% for the period 08-Feb-10 to 14-Sep-18

TQQQ Signals Weekly

TQQQ signals (weekly) shown above were chosen for their reward/risk and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the TQQQ signals

For the 449 week (8.6 year) period from Feb 8 2010 to Sep 14 2018, these signals for TQQQ traded both long and short would have yielded $8,560,235 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 119.5%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $2,085,458, an annualized return of 86.3%. 78.7% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $411,810 (an annualized return of 54.6%) if you had bought and held the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

Not all signals are acted upon and signals are often reinforced in this type of strategy. If you are long in the security, buy signals are not acted on, for example. Similarly if you are short you must ignore sell signals. There were 108 buy signals and 22 sell signals for this particular TQQQ strategy .These led to 18 round trip long trades of which 15 were profitable, and 18 short trades of which 14 were profitable. This is a weekly strategy; weekly OHLC data is used to derive all signals and there is at most one buy and sell signal and one trade per week.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 36% for long-short and 29% for long only. This compares to 44% for buy-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 2.89 compared to 1.11 for buy-hold, a factor of 2.6 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 2.54. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7.

GLD Signals Equity

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) Signals-Daily

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These SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) signals traded as directed would have performed around 7.9 times better than short-hold with an ROI of 86% for the period 17-Aug-16 to 20-Sep-18

GLD Signals

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) signals shown above were selected for their reward/risk and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) signals

For the 528 day (2.1 year) period from Aug 17 2016 to Sep 20 2018, these signals for SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) traded both long and short would have yielded $8,617 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 34.6%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $3,130, an annualized return of 13.9%. 41.5% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $1,084 (an annualized return of 5.3%) if you had shorted the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

Not all signals are acted upon and signals are often reinforced in this type of strategy. If you are long in the security, buy signals are not acted on, for example. Similarly if you are short you must ignore sell signals. There were 35 buy signals and 47 sell signals for this particular GLD strategy. These led to 14 round trip long trades of which 8 were profitable, and 15 short trades of which 12 were profitable. Daily OHLC data is used to derive all signals and there is at most one buy and sell signal and one trade per day.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 7% for long-short and 7% for long only. This compares to 17% for buy-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 3.01 compared to 0.25 for short-hold, a factor of 12.2 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 1.15. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7.