Tesla (TSLA) Signals-Daily

These Tesla (TSLA) signals would have performed around 29 times better than buy-hold with an ROI of 1,043% for the period 24-Aug-16 to 27-Sep-18

TSLA Signals Daily

The trading signals for Tesla (TSLA) were for their reward/risk, longevity and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the Tesla (TSLA) signals

For the 528 day (2.1 year) period from Aug 24 2016 to Sep 27 2018, these signals for Tesla (TSLA) traded both long and short would have yielded $104,289 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 220.5%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $33,530, an annualized return of 102.0%. 54.8% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $3,606 (an annualized return of 15.9%) if you had bought and held the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

Not all signals are acted upon and signals are often reinforced in this type of strategy. If you are long in the security, buy signals are not acted on, for example. Similarly if you are short you must ignore sell signals. There were 194 buy signals and 205 sell signals for this particular TSLA strategy. These led to 77 round trip long trades of which 42 were profitable, and 77 short trades of which 34 were profitable. This is a daily strategy--daily OHLC data is used to derive all signals and there is at most one buy and sell signal and one trade per day.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 16% for long-short and 16% for long only. This compares to 35% for buy-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 10.38 compared to 0.40 for buy-hold, a factor of 25.9 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 4.92. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7.

Click here to see the list of Trades

These are the trades which would have occurred had you used the signals as directed. They are the results of a simulation, not actual trades.

Day of signal Buy or Sell Price L&S Value Next Open
8/29/2016 Sell 216.11 9,993
9/6/2016 Buy 202.24 10,791
9/8/2016 Sell 199.09 10,441
9/12/2016 Buy 198.16 10,417
9/13/2016 Sell 195.75 10,334
9/15/2016 Buy 199.67 10,151
9/21/2016 Sell 206.40 10,440
9/23/2016 Buy 209.33 10,139
9/27/2016 Sell 207.51 10,174
10/18/2016 Buy 199.17 10,600
10/20/2016 Sell 198.60 10,526
11/4/2016 Buy 192.06 10,944
11/9/2016 Sell 191.05 10,787
11/11/2016 Buy 187.22 11,034
11/14/2016 Sell 182.78 10,714
11/15/2016 Buy 185.74 10,351
11/21/2016 Sell 185.84 10,518
11/22/2016 Buy 188.85 10,430
11/29/2016 Sell 191.00 10,437
12/5/2016 Buy 185.47 10,729
12/29/2016 Sell 216.30 12,495
1/3/2017 Buy 218.34 12,159
1/30/2017 Sell 249.24 14,098
1/31/2017 Buy 253.28 13,843
2/15/2017 Sell 277.60 15,173
2/17/2017 Buy 270.11 15,876
2/22/2017 Sell 264.00 15,202
2/24/2017 Buy 256.75 15,084
2/27/2017 Sell 244.19 14,828
2/28/2017 Buy 248.15 14,928
3/8/2017 Sell 247.63 14,529
3/14/2017 Buy 250.10 14,767
3/21/2017 Sell 251.56 14,441
3/24/2017 Buy 259.84 13,992
4/5/2017 Sell 296.88 15,926
4/6/2017 Buy 301.69 15,437
4/11/2017 Sell 306.34 15,881
4/13/2017 Buy 301.51 16,182
5/2/2017 Sell 317.67 16,968
5/5/2017 Buy 302.83 18,220
5/15/2017 Sell 317.59 18,598
5/18/2017 Buy 311.97 19,126
5/22/2017 Sell 310.46 18,807
5/25/2017 Buy 316.06 18,525
6/9/2017 Sell 357.99 20,888
6/12/2017 Buy 363.79 20,752
6/15/2017 Sell 377.98 21,323
6/22/2017 Buy 384.11 20,872
6/26/2017 Sell 376.40 20,528
7/11/2017 Buy 321.12 24,209
7/13/2017 Sell 323.19 23,666
7/18/2017 Buy 322.64 24,103
7/27/2017 Sell 336.89 24,724
7/31/2017 Buy 340.94 23,129
8/1/2017 Sell 318.94 22,825
8/2/2017 Buy 324.11 23,910
8/10/2017 Sell 356.97 24,702
8/23/2017 Buy 344.48 26,149
8/25/2017 Sell 347.28 25,746
8/29/2017 Buy 344.98 26,255
9/5/2017 Sell 349.50 26,228
9/7/2017 Buy 351.58 25,865
9/8/2017 Sell 351.35 26,026
9/11/2017 Buy 357.04 26,124
9/19/2017 Sell 373.00 26,720
10/3/2017 Buy 341.34 29,815
10/9/2017 Sell 346.80 29,423
10/10/2017 Buy 352.42 29,054
10/16/2017 Sell 350.91 28,795
10/18/2017 Buy 361.74 27,416
10/19/2017 Sell 352.69 27,181
10/31/2017 Buy 325.42 29,883
11/1/2017 Sell 300.13 26,980
11/2/2017 Buy 304.99 26,052
11/3/2017 Sell 307.00 26,690
11/7/2017 Buy 305.90 26,737
11/9/2017 Sell 302.50 26,461
11/10/2017 Buy 307.40 25,403
11/15/2017 Sell 313.99 26,562
11/21/2017 Buy 315.90 26,459
11/29/2017 Sell 308.56 25,760
12/5/2017 Buy 306.89 25,312
12/15/2017 Sell 344.90 29,077
1/2/2018 Buy 317.05 31,801
1/4/2018 Sell 316.62 31,353
1/8/2018 Buy 321.12 32,244
1/24/2018 Sell 348.27 33,492
1/29/2018 Buy 345.36 33,737
2/2/2018 Sell 337.97 33,022
2/5/2018 Buy 343.45 30,749
2/6/2018 Sell 338.99 32,038
2/7/2018 Buy 344.48 31,398
2/8/2018 Sell 319.93 29,245
2/13/2018 Buy 320.12 29,279
2/27/2018 Sell 352.57 32,161
3/2/2018 Buy 332.28 34,009
3/6/2018 Sell 325.44 33,284
3/7/2018 Buy 330.71 32,944
3/9/2018 Sell 328.61 32,509
3/12/2018 Buy 333.93 31,459
3/13/2018 Sell 336.76 32,225
3/21/2018 Buy 315.28 34,116
3/22/2018 Sell 311.25 33,815
3/29/2018 Buy 260.65 38,638
4/2/2018 Sell 269.82 40,668
4/4/2018 Buy 256.88 47,990
4/9/2018 Sell 298.97 49,573
4/10/2018 Buy 303.81 48,263
4/12/2018 Sell 303.60 48,708
4/18/2018 Buy 295.80 49,150
4/20/2018 Sell 291.29 49,171
4/26/2018 Buy 283.27 50,887
5/3/2018 Sell 283.00 50,451
5/4/2018 Buy 287.58 51,330
5/11/2018 Sell 303.32 52,320
5/16/2018 Buy 288.43 54,394
5/18/2018 Sell 281.33 53,511
5/21/2018 Buy 285.89 52,974
5/22/2018 Sell 277.76 51,119
5/29/2018 Buy 283.02 50,185
5/31/2018 Sell 285.86 50,626
6/1/2018 Buy 290.49 50,451
6/5/2018 Sell 300.50 51,493
6/6/2018 Buy 305.37 52,433
6/13/2018 Sell 347.63 57,640
6/14/2018 Buy 353.26 56,785
6/19/2018 Sell 358.04 57,445
6/20/2018 Buy 363.84 56,215
6/21/2018 Sell 351.54 54,577
6/25/2018 Buy 335.47 57,157
6/26/2018 Sell 345.00 58,665
6/27/2018 Buy 350.59 57,383
6/29/2018 Sell 360.07 59,247
7/6/2018 Buy 309.89 67,947
7/11/2018 Sell 321.43 69,989
7/17/2018 Buy 313.81 74,187
7/19/2018 Sell 321.23 73,313
7/25/2018 Buy 301.55 78,643
7/27/2018 Sell 295.90 76,320
7/31/2018 Buy 296.98 76,284
8/6/2018 Sell 343.84 88,007
8/7/2018 Buy 349.41 91,443
8/9/2018 Sell 354.00 87,691
8/10/2018 Buy 359.73 86,590
8/13/2018 Sell 358.45 85,934
8/20/2018 Buy 296.43 105,612
8/27/2018 Sell 318.41 108,251
9/6/2018 Buy 289.41 106,133
9/7/2018 Sell 273.26 111,489
9/10/2018 Buy 277.69 110,373
9/11/2018 Sell 281.44 111,137
9/12/2018 Buy 286.00 110,095
9/18/2018 Sell 280.51 107,210
9/19/2018 Buy 285.05 112,306
9/28/2018 Last 308.92 114,289

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