These Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Ex (DRIP) signals would have performed around 15.8 times better than shorting the stock (buy-hold had negative returns over the period) with an ROI of 1153% for the period 30-Nov-15 to 22-Nov-19
DRIP Signals
The trading signals for Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Ex (DRIP) were selected for their reward/risk and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.
Note that if shorting DRIP is problematic, an alternative is to buy GUSH, the inverse stock which fairly closely tracks the effect of shorting DRIP, in the short term.
Returns for the Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Ex (DRIP) signals
For the 208 week (4.0 year) period from Nov 30 2015 to Nov 22 2019, these signals for Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Ex (DRIP) traded both long and short would have yielded $115,281 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 89.1%. The return would have been $7,319 (an annualized return of 14.9%) if you had shorted the stock for the same period.
Signals and Trades
Weekly OHLC data was used in the numerical analysis leading to at most one buy signal and one sell signal per week. There were 147 buy signals and 165 sell signals for this particular DRIP strategy which in turn led to 99 round trip long trades of which 66 were profitable.
Drawdown and Reward/Risk
Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 21%. This compares to 97% for buy-hold and 157% for short-hold. The reward/risk was 3.48 compared to 0.09 for buy-hold, a factor of 38.1 improvement. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.
The backtests assume a commission per trade of $0. Returns have been adjusted for the worst case effects of 6 dividends.
Parameter sensitivity
We look for signals which are not too sensitive to changes in the buy or sell point. Here you see the effect on returns when the buy point or sell point is changed. The surface plot above can also be used for this analysis, here we just show the cross section of the surface at the buy and sell points.
Trade List
Split adjusted prices used throughout.
Key:
Cov S: Cover at the signal price
Buy S: Buy at the signal price
Sht S: Short at the signal price
Sell S: Sell at the signal price
C/B S: Cover or buy at the signal price (not clear which signal came first)
S/Sh S: Sell or short at the signal price (not clear which signal came first)
Cov o: Cover a short position at the subsequent weekly open
Sell o: Close a long position at the subsequent weekly open
Week of signal | Buy or Sell | Price | L&S Value Next Open |
11/30/2015 | 10,000 | ||
12/21/2015 | Cov S | 509.99 | 11,273 |
12/21/2015 | Sht S | 584.40 | 11,273 |
1/4/2016 | Cov S | 523.33 | 11,338 |
1/4/2016 | Sht S | 526.36 | 11,338 |
1/18/2016 | Cov S | 645.41 | 13,991 |
1/18/2016 | Sht S | 842.56 | 13,991 |
2/15/2016 | C/B S | 653.26 | 14,852 |
2/15/2016 | S/Sh S | 694.69 | 14,852 |
2/22/2016 | C/B S | 676.76 | 15,707 |
2/22/2016 | S/Sh S | 716.88 | 15,707 |
3/28/2016 | Sht S | 334.50 | 15,860 |
3/28/2016 | Cov o | 331.25 | 15,860 |
4/4/2016 | C/B S | 325.87 | 16,120 |
4/4/2016 | S/Sh S | 331.25 | 16,120 |
4/18/2016 | Buy S | 262.55 | 15,787 |
4/18/2016 | Sell S | 257.13 | 15,787 |
5/9/2016 | Sht S | 206.26 | 17,032 |
5/9/2016 | Cov o | 190.00 | 17,032 |
5/23/2016 | Cov S | 185.10 | 17,629 |
5/23/2016 | Sht S | 191.82 | 17,629 |
6/27/2016 | Cov S | 152.71 | 18,233 |
6/27/2016 | Sht S | 158.13 | 18,233 |
7/11/2016 | C/B S | 161.23 | 18,264 |
7/11/2016 | S/Sh S | 161.50 | 18,264 |
7/18/2016 | Buy S | 157.33 | 18,037 |
7/18/2016 | Sell S | 155.38 | 18,037 |
8/1/2016 | C/B S | 166.83 | 18,109 |
8/1/2016 | S/Sh S | 167.50 | 18,109 |
8/22/2016 | C/B S | 123.50 | 17,740 |
8/22/2016 | S/Sh S | 121.00 | 17,740 |
8/29/2016 | Buy S | 120.31 | 17,199 |
8/29/2016 | Sell S | 116.65 | 17,199 |
9/12/2016 | Buy S | 114.86 | 16,390 |
9/12/2016 | Sell S | 109.45 | 16,390 |
9/19/2016 | Cov S | 113.10 | 17,518 |
9/19/2016 | Sht S | 121.46 | 17,518 |
9/26/2016 | Cov S | 118.56 | 17,898 |
9/26/2016 | Sht S | 121.19 | 17,898 |
10/10/2016 | C/B S | 95.90 | 17,820 |
10/10/2016 | S/Sh S | 95.48 | 17,820 |
10/24/2016 | Buy S | 102.24 | 20,741 |
10/24/2016 | Sell o | 119.00 | 20,741 |
11/7/2016 | C/B S | 115.93 | 21,995 |
11/7/2016 | S/Sh S | 123.15 | 21,995 |
11/28/2016 | C/B S | 82.25 | 21,618 |
11/28/2016 | S/Sh S | 80.85 | 21,618 |
12/19/2016 | Sht S | 62.22 | 22,320 |
12/19/2016 | Cov o | 60.20 | 22,320 |
12/26/2016 | Buy S | 60.20 | 23,432 |
12/26/2016 | Sell o | 63.20 | 23,432 |
1/3/2017 | Sht S | 60.41 | 21,458 |
1/3/2017 | Cov o | 65.50 | 21,458 |
1/23/2017 | Buy S | 65.27 | 20,614 |
1/23/2017 | Sell S | 62.70 | 20,614 |
1/30/2017 | Buy S | 66.10 | 21,081 |
1/30/2017 | Sell o | 67.60 | 21,081 |
2/6/2017 | Sht S | 67.60 | 20,348 |
2/6/2017 | Cov o | 69.95 | 20,348 |
2/13/2017 | Sht S | 69.95 | 20,101 |
2/13/2017 | Cov o | 70.80 | 20,101 |
2/27/2017 | Sht S | 75.90 | 18,606 |
2/27/2017 | Cov o | 81.55 | 18,606 |
3/6/2017 | Buy S | 78.96 | 21,914 |
3/6/2017 | Sell o | 93.00 | 21,914 |
3/13/2017 | Sht S | 90.80 | 21,805 |
3/13/2017 | Cov o | 91.25 | 21,805 |
3/20/2017 | C/B S | 90.60 | 21,961 |
3/20/2017 | S/Sh S | 91.25 | 21,961 |
3/27/2017 | Cov S | 88.90 | 22,465 |
3/27/2017 | Sht S | 90.98 | 22,465 |
4/10/2017 | C/B S | 79.10 | 22,255 |
4/10/2017 | S/Sh S | 78.36 | 22,255 |
4/24/2017 | Cov S | 83.44 | 23,970 |
4/24/2017 | Sht S | 90.41 | 23,970 |
5/8/2017 | C/B S | 95.13 | 24,176 |
5/8/2017 | S/Sh S | 95.95 | 24,176 |
5/22/2017 | Sht S | 87.60 | 19,443 |
5/22/2017 | Cov o | 104.75 | 19,443 |
6/5/2017 | Sht S | 110.00 | 19,974 |
6/5/2017 | Cov o | 107.00 | 19,974 |
6/26/2017 | C/B S | 114.18 | 21,430 |
6/26/2017 | S/Sh S | 122.80 | 21,430 |
7/10/2017 | Sht S | 124.21 | 23,657 |
7/10/2017 | Cov o | 111.30 | 23,657 |
7/24/2017 | Cov S | 108.43 | 23,671 |
7/24/2017 | Sht S | 108.49 | 23,671 |
8/21/2017 | Sht S | 131.68 | 23,722 |
8/21/2017 | Cov o | 131.40 | 23,722 |
9/11/2017 | Cov S | 114.22 | 25,245 |
9/11/2017 | Sht S | 122.06 | 25,245 |
10/2/2017 | Buy S | 88.26 | 23,899 |
10/2/2017 | Sell S | 83.56 | 23,899 |
10/9/2017 | Buy S | 86.90 | 23,583 |
10/9/2017 | Sell o | 85.75 | 23,583 |
10/16/2017 | Buy S | 85.39 | 24,732 |
10/16/2017 | Sell o | 89.55 | 24,732 |
10/30/2017 | C/B S | 87.24 | 25,115 |
10/30/2017 | S/Sh S | 88.60 | 25,115 |
11/20/2017 | Sht S | 75.81 | 25,947 |
11/20/2017 | Cov o | 73.30 | 25,947 |
12/11/2017 | Sht S | 70.82 | 23,717 |
12/11/2017 | Cov o | 76.90 | 23,717 |
12/18/2017 | Cov S | 69.12 | 24,726 |
12/18/2017 | Sht S | 72.19 | 24,726 |
1/2/2018 | C/B S | 57.75 | 24,129 |
1/2/2018 | S/Sh S | 56.37 | 24,129 |
1/8/2018 | C/B S | 53.40 | 24,128 |
1/8/2018 | S/Sh S | 53.40 | 24,128 |
1/22/2018 | Cov S | 47.30 | 25,030 |
1/22/2018 | Sht S | 49.14 | 25,030 |
1/29/2018 | Buy S | 50.95 | 33,652 |
1/29/2018 | Sell o | 68.50 | 33,652 |
2/12/2018 | Sht S | 81.95 | 37,532 |
2/12/2018 | Cov o | 72.50 | 37,532 |
3/5/2018 | C/B S | 66.05 | 40,458 |
3/5/2018 | S/Sh S | 71.40 | 40,458 |
3/19/2018 | Cov S | 64.64 | 40,905 |
3/19/2018 | Sht S | 65.36 | 40,905 |
4/2/2018 | Cov S | 60.89 | 41,619 |
4/2/2018 | Sht S | 61.97 | 41,619 |
4/30/2018 | Buy S | 43.55 | 40,126 |
4/30/2018 | Sell S | 41.98 | 40,126 |
5/29/2018 | Sht S | 35.06 | 43,289 |
5/29/2018 | Cov o | 32.30 | 43,289 |
6/11/2018 | C/B S | 31.47 | 45,937 |
6/11/2018 | S/Sh S | 33.45 | 45,937 |
6/18/2018 | Cov S | 32.59 | 47,566 |
6/18/2018 | Sht S | 33.78 | 47,566 |
7/2/2018 | C/B S | 30.10 | 47,719 |
7/2/2018 | S/Sh S | 30.20 | 47,719 |
7/23/2018 | C/B S | 29.52 | 48,252 |
7/23/2018 | S/Sh S | 29.85 | 48,252 |
7/30/2018 | Buy S | 29.08 | 50,775 |
7/30/2018 | Sell o | 30.60 | 50,775 |
8/6/2018 | Sht S | 29.29 | 45,554 |
8/6/2018 | Cov o | 32.30 | 45,554 |
8/20/2018 | Cov S | 31.47 | 50,755 |
8/20/2018 | Sht S | 35.52 | 50,755 |
9/4/2018 | Buy S | 29.10 | 60,173 |
9/4/2018 | Sell o | 34.50 | 60,173 |
9/10/2018 | Sht S | 33.41 | 63,710 |
9/10/2018 | Cov o | 31.45 | 63,710 |
10/1/2018 | C/B S | 26.65 | 61,714 |
10/1/2018 | S/Sh S | 25.83 | 61,714 |
10/8/2018 | Buy S | 25.96 | 59,923 |
10/8/2018 | Sell S | 25.21 | 59,923 |
10/15/2018 | Sht S | 30.16 | 53,286 |
10/15/2018 | Cov o | 33.50 | 53,286 |
10/29/2018 | Sht S | 43.77 | 56,417 |
10/29/2018 | Cov o | 41.20 | 56,417 |
11/26/2018 | Sht S | 52.44 | 59,683 |
11/26/2018 | Cov o | 49.40 | 59,683 |
12/24/2018 | Sht S | 103.36 | 69,677 |
12/24/2018 | Cov o | 86.05 | 69,677 |
1/28/2019 | Cov S | 50.51 | 76,517 |
1/28/2019 | Sht S | 56.01 | 76,517 |
2/11/2019 | Cov S | 53.09 | 90,301 |
2/11/2019 | Sht S | 64.76 | 90,301 |
3/11/2019 | Sht S | 62.66 | 102,345 |
3/11/2019 | Cov o | 54.30 | 102,345 |
3/25/2019 | Buy S | 52.90 | 96,482 |
3/25/2019 | Sell S | 49.87 | 96,482 |
4/22/2019 | Buy S | 40.04 | 95,205 |
4/22/2019 | Sell S | 39.51 | 95,205 |
5/6/2019 | Sht S | 51.43 | 93,959 |
5/6/2019 | Cov o | 52.10 | 93,959 |
5/13/2019 | C/B S | 52.10 | 90,533 |
5/13/2019 | S/Sh S | 50.24 | 90,533 |
5/20/2019 | Cov S | 50.76 | 92,582 |
5/20/2019 | Sht S | 51.93 | 92,582 |
6/3/2019 | Sht S | 71.14 | 91,067 |
6/3/2019 | Cov o | 72.30 | 91,067 |
6/10/2019 | Buy S | 72.24 | 90,026 |
6/10/2019 | Sell S | 71.41 | 90,026 |
6/17/2019 | Cov S | 70.43 | 95,927 |
6/17/2019 | Sht S | 75.38 | 95,927 |
7/8/2019 | Sht S | 62.45 | 96,181 |
7/8/2019 | Cov o | 62.28 | 96,181 |
7/22/2019 | Sht S | 75.27 | 87,735 |
7/22/2019 | Cov o | 81.88 | 87,735 |
7/29/2019 | Cov S | 74.04 | 91,311 |
7/29/2019 | Sht S | 77.19 | 91,311 |
8/12/2019 | C/B S | 93.43 | 97,918 |
8/12/2019 | S/Sh S | 100.43 | 97,918 |
8/19/2019 | C/B S | 97.84 | 102,305 |
8/19/2019 | S/Sh S | 102.32 | 102,305 |
8/26/2019 | Cov S | 99.68 | 109,232 |
8/26/2019 | Sht S | 106.92 | 109,232 |
9/3/2019 | C/B S | 106.19 | 113,898 |
9/3/2019 | S/Sh S | 110.82 | 113,898 |
10/7/2019 | Sht S | 89.96 | 110,302 |
10/7/2019 | Cov o | 92.80 | 110,302 |
10/14/2019 | C/B S | 87.64 | 116,617 |
10/14/2019 | S/Sh S | 92.80 | 116,617 |
10/21/2019 | Cov S | 90.41 | 117,146 |
10/21/2019 | Sht S | 90.82 | 117,146 |
11/11/2019 | Buy S | 72.00 | 125,281 |
11/11/2019 | Sell o | 77.00 | 125,281 |
11/25/2019 | S/Sh S | 86.70 | 125,281 |
Update 1/9/20
Some weeks there was both a buy and sell signal at the open (no trade).
This algorithm has not done a very good job at exploiting the huge downward swing (50%) of the underlying stock.
Date | Transaction | Buy/Cover | Sell/Short | Asset Value |
24-Nov-2019 | $ 10,000 | |||
25-Nov-2019 | Short | 86.700 | $ 10,000 | |
2-Dec-2019 | Cover | 91.290 | $ 9,471 | |
4-Dec-2019 | Short | 86.105 | $ 9,471 | |
6-Dec-2019 | Cover | 84.463 | $ 9,651 | |
30-Dec-2019 | Buy | 57.110 | $ 9,651 | |
31-Dec-2019 | Sell | 55.122 | $ 9,315 |