GUSH Signals Weekly (BCS BOS OO)

These Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Ex (GUSH) signals traded as directed would have performed around 27.7 times better than short-hold with an ROI of 2639% for the period 02-Nov-15 to 25-Oct-19

GUSH Signals Performance

GUSH Signals

The trading signals for Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Ex (GUSH) were selected for their reward/risk, longevity and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Ex (GUSH) signals

For the 208 week (4.0 year) period from Nov 2 2015 to Oct 25 2019, these signals for Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Ex (GUSH) traded both long and short would have yielded $263,892 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 130.2%. 73% of the weeks was spent in the market. The return would have been $9,524 (an annualized return of 18.4%) if you had shorted the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

We call this a weekly strategy as weekly OHLC data is used in the numerical analysis leading to at most one buy signal and one sell signal per week. Each week there can be zero, one or two signals and all open positions are closed at the subsequent weekly open.  There were 123 buy signals and 147 sell signals for this particular GUSH strategy which in turn led to 152 trades of which 115 were profitable.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 22%. This compares to 43% for short-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 4.89 compared to 0.38 for short-hold, a factor of 12.8 improvement.  We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric. Note that the strategy was chosen for peak reward/risk rather than peak annualized return (which was 204% for $817,831 return over the period for buy-point 7.47% and sell-point 0.57%).

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7. Returns have been adjusted for the worst case effects of 6 dividends.

Trade List

Click to see trades

Week of signal Buy or Sell Price L&S Value Next Open
11/9/2015 C/B S 71.80 10,601
11/9/2015 S/Sh S 76.36 10,601
11/16/2015 Sht S 62.52 10,702
11/16/2015 Cov o 61.85 10,702
11/30/2015 C/B S 59.91 11,144
11/30/2015 S/Sh S 62.52 11,144
12/7/2015 C/B S 47.40 10,646
12/7/2015 S/Sh S 45.39 10,646
12/14/2015 C/B S 35.67 10,717
12/14/2015 S/Sh S 35.95 10,717
12/21/2015 C/B S 28.01 10,953
12/21/2015 S/Sh S 28.68 10,953
12/28/2015 C/B S 33.45 10,834
12/28/2015 S/Sh S 33.13 10,834
1/4/2016 C/B S 30.67 11,353
1/4/2016 S/Sh S 32.22 11,353
1/11/2016 C/B S 22.86 11,859
1/11/2016 S/Sh S 23.94 11,859
1/18/2016 C/B S 17.07 12,474
1/18/2016 S/Sh S 18.00 12,474
1/25/2016 C/B S 18.85 11,918
1/25/2016 S/Sh S 18.05 11,918
2/1/2016 C/B S 23.00 11,387
2/1/2016 S/Sh S 22.02 11,387
2/8/2016 C/B S 17.86 11,126
2/8/2016 S/Sh S 17.47 11,126
2/15/2016 C/B S 14.30 12,157
2/15/2016 S/Sh S 15.70 12,157
2/22/2016 C/B S 13.05 13,634
2/22/2016 S/Sh S 14.75 13,634
2/29/2016 C/B S 14.11 14,396
2/29/2016 S/Sh S 14.94 14,396
3/7/2016 C/B S 22.25 15,023
3/7/2016 S/Sh S 23.27 15,023
3/14/2016 C/B S 23.30 14,356
3/14/2016 S/Sh S 22.31 14,356
3/21/2016 C/B S 26.09 14,577
3/21/2016 S/Sh S 26.52 14,577
3/28/2016 C/B S 23.24 15,067
3/28/2016 S/Sh S 24.06 15,067
4/4/2016 C/B S 23.31 15,269
4/4/2016 S/Sh S 23.65 15,269
4/18/2016 Buy S 28.01 22,216
4/18/2016 Sell o 40.78 22,216
4/25/2016 C/B S 37.76 22,951
4/25/2016 S/Sh S 39.05 22,951
5/2/2016 C/B S 38.54 23,358
5/2/2016 S/Sh S 39.26 23,358
5/9/2016 C/B S 31.00 23,331
5/9/2016 S/Sh S 30.98 23,331
5/16/2016 Sht S 35.03 23,384
5/16/2016 Cov o 34.93 23,384
6/6/2016 Sht S 39.92 25,117
6/6/2016 Cov o 36.94 25,117
6/13/2016 C/B S 35.54 24,978
6/13/2016 S/Sh S 35.37 24,978
6/20/2016 Sht S 38.33 27,006
6/20/2016 Cov o 35.20 27,006
6/27/2016 C/B S 33.38 27,249
6/27/2016 S/Sh S 33.70 27,249
7/4/2016 C/B S 35.22 26,266
7/4/2016 S/Sh S 33.99 26,266
7/18/2016 C/B S 32.89 26,374
7/18/2016 S/Sh S 33.04 26,374
7/25/2016 C/B S 30.97 26,360
7/25/2016 S/Sh S 30.97 26,360
8/1/2016 C/B S 30.95 26,350
8/1/2016 S/Sh S 30.95 26,350
8/8/2016 Sht S 35.32 23,254
8/8/2016 Cov o 39.46 23,254
8/22/2016 Buy S 40.26 24,028
8/22/2016 Sell o 41.62 24,028
8/29/2016 C/B S 38.93 24,575
8/29/2016 S/Sh S 39.85 24,575
9/12/2016 C/B S 40.43 24,473
9/12/2016 S/Sh S 40.28 24,473
9/19/2016 Sht S 37.68 23,762
9/19/2016 Cov o 38.75 23,762
9/26/2016 C/B S 34.96 25,164
9/26/2016 S/Sh S 37.10 25,164
10/3/2016 Sht S 43.23 23,562
10/3/2016 Cov o 45.96 23,562
10/10/2016 Sht S 44.01 24,708
10/10/2016 Cov o 41.84 24,708
10/24/2016 C/B S 39.45 25,545
10/24/2016 S/Sh S 40.83 25,545
10/31/2016 C/B S 34.22 25,969
10/31/2016 S/Sh S 34.81 25,969
11/28/2016 C/B S 44.05 27,509
11/28/2016 S/Sh S 46.76 27,509
12/5/2016 Sht S 55.09 21,552
12/5/2016 Cov o 67.00 21,552
12/12/2016 C/B S 54.90 24,906
12/12/2016 S/Sh S 64.15 24,906
12/26/2016 Sht S 52.43 24,670
12/26/2016 Cov o 52.90 24,670
1/3/2017 Sht S 50.65 24,674
1/3/2017 Cov o 50.62 24,674
1/9/2017 C/B S 47.92 24,938
1/9/2017 S/Sh S 48.46 24,938
1/30/2017 C/B S 46.08 25,299
1/30/2017 S/Sh S 46.78 25,299
2/6/2017 C/B S 43.81 25,960
2/6/2017 S/Sh S 44.99 25,960
2/13/2017 C/B S 42.62 26,365
2/13/2017 S/Sh S 43.32 26,365
2/21/2017 C/B S 39.35 28,138
2/21/2017 S/Sh S 42.11 28,138
3/6/2017 C/B S 34.65 29,015
3/6/2017 S/Sh S 35.77 29,015
3/13/2017 C/B S 29.88 29,926
3/13/2017 S/Sh S 30.85 29,926
3/20/2017 C/B S 30.81 30,092
3/20/2017 S/Sh S 31.00 30,092
4/3/2017 Sht S 34.23 28,677
4/3/2017 Cov o 35.83 28,677
4/10/2017 C/B S 32.51 30,206
4/10/2017 S/Sh S 34.30 30,206
4/17/2017 C/B S 30.07 31,512
4/17/2017 S/Sh S 31.41 31,512
4/24/2017 Sht S 29.04 31,950
4/24/2017 Cov o 28.62 31,950
5/1/2017 C/B S 26.69 32,784
5/1/2017 S/Sh S 27.40 32,784
5/15/2017 C/B S 27.04 36,361
5/15/2017 S/Sh S 30.16 36,361
5/22/2017 C/B S 27.46 38,259
5/22/2017 S/Sh S 28.95 38,259
5/30/2017 C/B S 23.92 38,534
5/30/2017 S/Sh S 24.10 38,534
6/5/2017 C/B S 20.52 39,137
6/5/2017 S/Sh S 20.85 39,137
6/12/2017 C/B S 20.77 41,884
6/12/2017 S/Sh S 22.29 41,884
6/19/2017 C/B S 18.92 43,751
6/19/2017 S/Sh S 19.79 43,751
7/3/2017 C/B S 19.27 46,314
7/3/2017 S/Sh S 20.44 46,314
7/17/2017 Sht S 19.56 44,245
7/17/2017 Cov o 20.43 44,245
7/31/2017 C/B S 20.56 45,304
7/31/2017 S/Sh S 21.07 45,304
8/7/2017 C/B S 17.65 45,903
8/7/2017 S/Sh S 17.89 45,903
8/14/2017 C/B S 16.26 47,668
8/14/2017 S/Sh S 16.90 47,668
8/28/2017 C/B S 15.10 49,721
8/28/2017 S/Sh S 15.77 49,721
9/5/2017 C/B S 16.40 52,711
9/5/2017 S/Sh S 17.42 52,711
10/2/2017 Buy S 22.50 54,633
10/2/2017 Sell o 23.33 54,633
10/9/2017 Sht S 22.34 51,486
10/9/2017 Cov o 23.62 51,486
10/16/2017 Sht S 22.62 51,463
10/16/2017 Cov o 22.62 51,463
10/23/2017 C/B S 20.87 53,346
10/23/2017 S/Sh S 21.66 53,346
10/30/2017 Buy S 20.22 71,402
10/30/2017 Sell o 27.07 71,402
11/13/2017 C/B S 27.02 73,708
11/13/2017 S/Sh S 27.91 73,708
11/20/2017 Sht S 23.87 67,274
11/20/2017 Cov o 25.95 67,274
11/27/2017 C/B S 24.30 68,762
11/27/2017 S/Sh S 24.85 68,762
12/4/2017 C/B S 26.53 70,280
12/4/2017 S/Sh S 27.13 70,280
12/11/2017 C/B S 23.91 72,833
12/11/2017 S/Sh S 24.80 72,833
1/16/2018 C/B S 33.83 75,669
1/16/2018 S/Sh S 35.18 75,669
1/29/2018 C/B S 31.86 76,171
1/29/2018 S/Sh S 32.08 76,171
2/5/2018 C/B S 23.76 76,168
2/5/2018 S/Sh S 23.77 76,168
2/20/2018 C/B S 20.26 79,142
2/20/2018 S/Sh S 21.07 79,142
2/26/2018 C/B S 21.46 82,380
2/26/2018 S/Sh S 22.36 82,380
3/12/2018 C/B S 21.49 83,969
3/12/2018 S/Sh S 21.91 83,969
3/19/2018 C/B S 20.90 85,478
3/19/2018 S/Sh S 21.29 85,478
3/26/2018 Sht S 22.54 82,732
3/26/2018 Cov o 23.26 82,732
4/2/2018 C/B S 22.06 83,511
4/2/2018 S/Sh S 22.27 83,511
5/7/2018 Sht S 32.56 70,069
5/7/2018 Cov o 37.79 70,069
5/21/2018 C/B S 39.30 73,971
5/21/2018 S/Sh S 41.56 73,971
6/4/2018 C/B S 36.06 77,413
6/4/2018 S/Sh S 37.78 77,413
6/11/2018 C/B S 35.56 78,603
6/11/2018 S/Sh S 36.12 78,603
6/25/2018 C/B S 36.64 80,840
6/25/2018 S/Sh S 37.71 80,840
7/2/2018 C/B S 37.58 81,576
7/2/2018 S/Sh S 37.93 81,576
7/9/2018 Sht S 40.75 85,308
7/9/2018 Cov o 38.88 85,308
7/16/2018 C/B S 37.63 84,372
7/16/2018 S/Sh S 37.23 84,372
7/30/2018 Sht S 37.66 83,996
7/30/2018 Cov o 37.82 83,996
8/6/2018 Sht S 36.21 84,939
8/6/2018 Cov o 35.80 84,939
8/13/2018 C/B S 33.54 86,770
8/13/2018 S/Sh S 34.28 86,770
8/27/2018 Sht S 35.43 80,211
8/27/2018 Cov o 38.10 80,211
9/4/2018 C/B S 34.59 84,473
9/4/2018 S/Sh S 36.48 84,473
10/8/2018 C/B S 37.35 85,100
10/8/2018 S/Sh S 37.63 85,100
10/15/2018 C/B S 31.03 89,032
10/15/2018 S/Sh S 32.51 89,032
10/22/2018 C/B S 28.36 91,773
10/22/2018 S/Sh S 29.25 91,773
10/29/2018 C/B S 20.10 96,242
10/29/2018 S/Sh S 21.10 96,242
11/5/2018 C/B S 20.31 104,025
11/5/2018 S/Sh S 22.02 104,025
11/12/2018 C/B S 20.59 110,660
11/12/2018 S/Sh S 21.95 110,660
11/19/2018 C/B S 17.72 110,730
11/19/2018 S/Sh S 17.73 110,730
11/26/2018 Sht S 15.40 97,890
11/26/2018 Cov o 17.18 97,890
12/3/2018 C/B S 14.60 109,573
12/3/2018 S/Sh S 16.45 109,573
12/10/2018 C/B S 12.86 109,047
12/10/2018 S/Sh S 12.80 109,047
12/17/2018 C/B S 9.93 112,152
12/17/2018 S/Sh S 10.22 112,152
12/24/2018 C/B S 6.53 111,767
12/24/2018 S/Sh S 6.51 111,767
12/31/2018 C/B S 7.09 119,876
12/31/2018 S/Sh S 7.62 119,876
1/22/2019 C/B S 11.92 119,314
1/22/2019 S/Sh S 11.86 119,314
1/28/2019 Buy S 10.68 127,255
1/28/2019 Sell o 11.39 127,255
2/4/2019 C/B S 10.78 128,722
2/4/2019 S/Sh S 10.91 128,722
2/19/2019 C/B S 10.94 130,137
2/19/2019 S/Sh S 11.06 130,137
2/25/2019 C/B S 10.49 131,439
2/25/2019 S/Sh S 10.60 131,439
3/4/2019 C/B S 10.22 139,678
3/4/2019 S/Sh S 10.89 139,678
4/1/2019 C/B S 10.28 149,268
4/1/2019 S/Sh S 11.01 149,268
4/8/2019 Sht S 11.86 138,980
4/8/2019 Cov o 12.68 138,980
4/15/2019 Sht S 12.14 131,997
4/15/2019 Cov o 12.75 131,997
4/22/2019 C/B S 11.20 143,418
4/22/2019 S/Sh S 12.21 143,418
4/29/2019 C/B S 10.59 148,186
4/29/2019 S/Sh S 10.95 148,186
5/13/2019 C/B S 9.01 150,011
5/13/2019 S/Sh S 9.12 150,011
5/20/2019 C/B S 8.66 154,325
5/20/2019 S/Sh S 8.91 154,325
5/28/2019 C/B S 6.60 162,169
5/28/2019 S/Sh S 6.94 162,169
6/3/2019 Sht S 5.89 153,856
6/3/2019 Cov o 6.19 153,856
6/10/2019 C/B S 5.64 161,361
6/10/2019 S/Sh S 5.93 161,361
6/24/2019 C/B S 6.16 168,075
6/24/2019 S/Sh S 6.42 168,075
7/1/2019 C/B S 6.51 185,821
7/1/2019 S/Sh S 7.24 185,821
7/8/2019 C/B S 5.94 190,126
7/8/2019 S/Sh S 6.08 190,126
7/15/2019 C/B S 6.02 198,941
7/15/2019 S/Sh S 6.31 198,941
7/22/2019 C/B S 4.79 208,026
7/22/2019 S/Sh S 5.02 208,026
7/29/2019 C/B S 4.44 215,995
7/29/2019 S/Sh S 4.62 215,995
8/5/2019 C/B S 3.83 206,598
8/5/2019 S/Sh S 3.67 206,598
8/12/2019 C/B S 3.35 212,507
8/12/2019 S/Sh S 3.45 212,507
8/19/2019 C/B S 2.96 230,784
8/19/2019 S/Sh S 3.23 230,784
8/26/2019 Sht S 2.90 230,072
8/26/2019 Cov o 2.91 230,072
9/3/2019 C/B S 2.91 220,063
9/3/2019 S/Sh S 2.79 220,063
9/16/2019 Sht S 4.79 258,085
9/16/2019 Cov o 3.96 258,085
9/23/2019 C/B S 3.69 264,952
9/23/2019 S/Sh S 3.79 264,952
9/30/2019 C/B S 3.12 268,440
9/30/2019 S/Sh S 3.16 268,440
10/7/2019 C/B S 2.61 278,561
10/7/2019 S/Sh S 2.71 278,561
10/14/2019 C/B S 2.61 273,892
10/14/2019 S/Sh S 2.57 273,892
10/28/2019 C/B S 2.80 273,892
10/28/2019 S/Sh S 2.96 273,892

Posted in Weekly Signals.

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