GUSH Signals Weekly (BCS BOS OO)

The trading signals for Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Ex (GUSH) were selected for their reward/risk, longevity and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Ex (GUSH) signals

For the 208 week (4.0 year) period from Nov 2 2015 to Oct 25 2019, these signals for Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Ex (GUSH) traded both long and short would have yielded $263,892 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 130.2%. 73% of the weeks was spent in the market. The return would have been $9,524 (an annualized return of 18.4%) if you had shorted the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

We call this a weekly strategy as weekly OHLC data is used in the numerical analysis leading to at most one buy signal and one sell signal per week. Each week there can be zero, one or two signals and all open positions are closed at the subsequent weekly open.  There were 123 buy signals and 147 sell signals for this particular GUSH strategy which in turn led to 152 trades of which 115 were profitable.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 22%. This compares to 43% for short-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 4.89 compared to 0.38 for short-hold, a factor of 12.8 improvement.  We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric. Note that the strategy was chosen for peak reward/risk rather than peak annualized return (which was 204% for $817,831 return over the period for buy-point 7.47% and sell-point 0.57%).

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $0. Returns have been adjusted for the worst case effects of 6 dividends.