Amazon AMZN Signals Daily

Amazon (AMZN) Signals-Daily

These Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) signals traded as directed would have performed around 3.6 times better than buy-hold with an ROI of 391% for the period 02-Nov-16 to 07-Dec-18. This is a symmetrical algorithm with no buy or sell bias.

AMZN Daily Signals

"The trading signals for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) were selected for their reward/risk, longevity and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) signals

For the 528 day (2.1 year) period from Nov 2 2016 to Dec 7 2018, these signals for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) traded both long and short would have yielded $39,084 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 113.5%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $23,562, an annualized return of 78.1%. 47.8% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $10,782 (an annualized return of 41.7%) if you had bought and held the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

We call this a daily strategy as daily OHLC data is used in the numerical analysis leading to at most one buy signal and one sell signal per day. However, not all signals result in trades. If you are already long in a security, buy signals are not acted upon, similarly if you are short you should ignore sell signals. There were 259 buy signals and 290 sell signals for this particular AMZN strategy which in turn led to 128 round trip long trades of which 81 were profitable, and 128 short trades of which 64 were profitable.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 13% for long-short and 8% for long only. This compares to 29% for buy-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 6.31 compared to 1.21 for buy-hold, a factor of 5.2 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 5.91. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The algorithm uses Bollinger bands with an SD (Excel STDEVPA) of the trailing 50 (H+L)/2 prices, scaled by a factor of 10.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7. "

AMZN Signals Weekly Equity

AMZN (Amazon) Signals – Weekly

AMZN Signals (Weekly)

AMZN Signals (Weekly)

For the 528 week (10.1 year) period from Jul 7 2008 to Aug 17 2018, these trading signals for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) would have yielded $1,951,107 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 68.6%. If you had bought and held the stock for the same period the profit would have been $251,237 (an annualized return of 38.1%).

The trading style was Long & Short, meaning that you would be long or short the security at all times. For this type of strategy, not every signal is acted upon and signals are often reinforced. If you are long in the security, buy signals can be ignored, for example. Similarly if you are short you can ignore sell signals. For this particular AMZN strategy there were 198 buy signals and 55 sell signals.These led to 42 long trades of which 34 were good, and 41 short trades of which 21 were good.

This is a weekly strategy, which means that weekly OHLC data is used to derive all signals and there is at most one buy and sell signal and one trade per week. Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 29% vs. 55% for buy-hold. Using drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric, the reward/risk for the strategy was 2.01 vs. 0.64 for buy-hold, an improvement factor of around 3.2