NVIDIA (NVDA) Signals-Weekly

The NVIDIA (NVDA) signals presented here would have performed around 41.0 times better than buy-hold with an ROI of 100,721% for the period 11-Aug-08 to 21-Sep-18

NVDA Signals Weekly

The trading signals for NVIDIA (NVDA) were selected for their reward/risk, longevity and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the NVIDIA (NVDA) signals

For the 528 week (10.1 year) period from Aug 11 2008 to Sep 21 2018, these signals for NVIDIA (NVDA) traded both long and short would have yielded $10,072,063 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 98.3%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $1,789,777, an annualized return of 67.2%. 81.9% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $245,766 (an annualized return of 37.8%) if you had bought and held the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

We call this a weekly strategy as weekly OHLC data is used in the numerical analysis leading to at most one buy signal and one sell signal per week. However, not all signals result in trades. If you are already long in a security, buy signals are not acted upon, similarly if you are short you should ignore sell signals. There were 144 buy signals and 106 sell signals for this particular NVDA strategy which in turn led to 34 round trip long trades of which 21 were profitable, and 34 short trades of which 28 were profitable.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 47% for long-short and 37% for long only. This compares to 54% for buy-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 1.89 compared to 0.64 for buy-hold, a factor of 3.0 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 1.60. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7. Returns have been adjusted for the worst case effects of 24 dividends.

Click here to see the list of Trades

These are the trades which would have occurred had you used the signals as directed. They are the results of a simulation, not actual trades.

Week of signal Buy or Sell Price L&S Value Next Open
8/25/2008 Sell 12.85 9,993
9/1/2008 Buy 11.67 10,999
9/15/2008 Sell 11.32 10,556
10/6/2008 Buy 6.81 16,003
10/13/2008 Sell 7.91 17,115
11/17/2008 Buy 6.38 21,660
12/8/2008 Sell 8.65 27,661
12/22/2008 Buy 7.51 31,709
12/29/2008 Sell 8.61 35,862
1/12/2009 Buy 7.99 38,334
1/19/2009 Sell 7.75 37,262
2/16/2009 Buy 7.61 38,568
2/23/2009 Sell 8.08 40,249
5/11/2009 Buy 8.74 37,877
6/22/2009 Sell 11.60 49,023
7/6/2009 Buy 10.37 55,305
8/10/2009 Sell 13.01 67,994
9/21/2009 Buy 14.50 60,400
10/12/2009 Sell 13.33 55,322
10/26/2009 Buy 11.96 60,891
11/16/2009 Sell 13.09 66,742
11/23/2009 Buy 12.79 68,524
2/15/2010 Sell 16.65 88,844
2/22/2010 Buy 16.20 91,287
5/10/2010 Sell 12.98 73,083
5/17/2010 Buy 12.73 74,243
5/24/2010 Sell 12.96 75,809
6/7/2010 Buy 11.61 84,917
6/21/2010 Sell 11.16 80,433
6/28/2010 Buy 10.25 86,639
8/9/2010 Sell 9.26 78,563
8/30/2010 Buy 9.90 72,898
9/27/2010 Sell 11.24 83,002
10/4/2010 Buy 10.86 86,189
1/17/2011 Sell 23.24 183,583
2/28/2011 Buy 20.76 204,627
5/2/2011 Sell 19.38 189,641
5/16/2011 Buy 18.09 199,343
5/30/2011 Sell 18.43 206,037
6/6/2011 Buy 17.12 220,668
7/25/2011 Sell 14.15 182,372
8/15/2011 Buy 11.73 219,556
9/19/2011 Sell 13.96 254,132
9/26/2011 Buy 12.51 276,927
10/3/2011 Sell 14.39 322,656
10/31/2011 Buy 14.82 310,678
11/14/2011 Sell 13.71 289,543
12/12/2011 Buy 13.51 295,058
2/13/2012 Sell 15.84 344,401
2/27/2012 Buy 15.38 351,854
5/14/2012 Sell 12.10 278,797
5/21/2012 Buy 12.40 276,255
1/7/2013 Sell 12.29 271,140
1/14/2013 Buy 12.17 273,548
12/8/2014 Sell 19.86 464,732
12/29/2014 Buy 20.13 458,400
1/4/2016 Sell 29.66 686,944
1/11/2016 Buy 27.11 761,399
2/1/2016 Sell 26.03 716,257
2/8/2016 Buy 25.73 734,916
12/26/2016 Sell 104.40 2,967,333
1/3/2017 Buy 103.10 3,015,924
2/21/2017 Sell 102.20 2,982,109
4/10/2017 Buy 95.49 3,194,654
7/24/2017 Sell 164.94 5,493,806
9/5/2017 Buy 163.69 5,593,296
3/26/2018 Sell 228.74 7,738,713
4/2/2018 Buy 214.25 8,326,864
9/24/2018 Last 262.20 10,082,063

Posted in Trading buy sell signals, Weekly Signals.

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