NVIDIA (NVDA) Signals-Weekly

The trading signals for NVIDIA (NVDA) were selected for their reward/risk, longevity and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the NVIDIA (NVDA) signals

For the 528 week (10.1 year) period from Aug 11 2008 to Sep 21 2018, these signals for NVIDIA (NVDA) traded both long and short would have yielded $10,072,063 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 98.3%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $1,789,777, an annualized return of 67.2%. 81.9% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $245,766 (an annualized return of 37.8%) if you had bought and held the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

We call this a weekly strategy as weekly OHLC data is used in the numerical analysis leading to at most one buy signal and one sell signal per week. However, not all signals result in trades. If you are already long in a security, buy signals are not acted upon, similarly if you are short you should ignore sell signals. There were 144 buy signals and 106 sell signals for this particular NVDA strategy which in turn led to 34 round trip long trades of which 21 were profitable, and 34 short trades of which 28 were profitable.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 47% for long-short and 37% for long only. This compares to 54% for buy-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 1.89 compared to 0.64 for buy-hold, a factor of 3.0 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 1.60. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7. Returns have been adjusted for the worst case effects of 24 dividends.