These Tesla (TSLA) signals would have performed around 36.7 times better than buy-hold with an ROI of 54,010% for the period 28-Jun-10 to 21-Sep-18
The trading signals for Tesla (TSLA) were selected for their reward/risk, longevity and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.
Returns for the Tesla (TSLA) signals
For the 430 week (8.2 year) period from Jun 28 2010 to Sep 21 2018, these signals for Tesla (TSLA) traded both long and short would have yielded $5,400,966 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 115.0%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $1,231,823, an annualized return of 79.8%. 62.6% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $147,095 (an annualized return of 39.8%) if you had bought and held the stock for the same period.
Signals and Trades
Not all signals are acted upon and signals are often reinforced in this type of strategy. If you are long in the security, buy signals are not acted on, for example. Similarly if you are short you must ignore sell signals. There were 375 buy signals and 275 sell signals for this particular TSLA strategy .These led to 142 round trip long trades of which 84 were profitable, and 143 short trades of which 83 were profitable. This is a weekly strategy; weekly OHLC data is used to derive all signals and there is at most one buy and sell signal and one trade per week.
Drawdown and Reward/Risk
Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 37% for long-short and 32% for long only. This compares to 44% for buy-hold. The reward/risk for trading long and short was 2.71 compared to 0.82 for buy-hold, a factor of 3.3 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 2.13. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.
The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7.
Week of signal | Buy or Sell | Price | L&S Value Next Open |
6/28/2010 | Sell | 19.00 | 10,000 |
7/5/2010 | Buy | 17.95 | 10,539 |
7/12/2010 | Sell | 21.37 | 12,533 |
7/19/2010 | Buy | 21.50 | 12,442 |
7/26/2010 | Sell | 20.50 | 11,850 |
8/2/2010 | Buy | 19.90 | 12,182 |
8/9/2010 | Sell | 18.45 | 11,281 |
8/16/2010 | Buy | 19.09 | 10,875 |
8/23/2010 | Sell | 19.70 | 11,209 |
8/30/2010 | Buy | 20.61 | 10,677 |
9/6/2010 | Sell | 20.89 | 10,808 |
9/13/2010 | Buy | 20.67 | 10,908 |
9/20/2010 | Sell | 20.40 | 10,752 |
9/27/2010 | Buy | 20.43 | 10,722 |
10/4/2010 | Sell | 20.44 | 10,713 |
10/11/2010 | Buy | 20.52 | 10,657 |
10/18/2010 | Sell | 20.94 | 10,861 |
10/25/2010 | Buy | 21.94 | 10,329 |
12/13/2010 | Sell | 31.64 | 14,881 |
12/20/2010 | Buy | 28.02 | 16,569 |
12/27/2010 | Sell | 26.84 | 15,858 |
1/3/2011 | Buy | 28.17 | 15,058 |
1/10/2011 | Sell | 25.48 | 13,606 |
1/17/2011 | Buy | 23.53 | 14,633 |
1/24/2011 | Sell | 24.05 | 14,943 |
1/31/2011 | Buy | 23.26 | 15,420 |
2/7/2011 | Sell | 23.64 | 15,657 |
2/14/2011 | Buy | 22.88 | 16,147 |
2/21/2011 | Sell | 23.74 | 16,740 |
3/7/2011 | Buy | 23.82 | 16,669 |
3/14/2011 | Sell | 23.05 | 16,116 |
3/21/2011 | Buy | 22.70 | 16,347 |
3/28/2011 | Sell | 26.83 | 19,307 |
4/4/2011 | Buy | 26.47 | 19,552 |
4/11/2011 | Sell | 25.13 | 18,549 |
4/18/2011 | Buy | 26.70 | 17,376 |
5/16/2011 | Sell | 27.62 | 17,960 |
5/23/2011 | Buy | 29.69 | 16,600 |
6/6/2011 | Sell | 28.07 | 15,681 |
6/13/2011 | Buy | 26.29 | 16,661 |
6/20/2011 | Sell | 27.73 | 17,560 |
7/4/2011 | Buy | 28.40 | 17,121 |
7/11/2011 | Sell | 27.34 | 16,468 |
7/18/2011 | Buy | 29.01 | 15,448 |
7/25/2011 | Sell | 28.67 | 15,253 |
8/1/2011 | Buy | 23.10 | 18,203 |
8/8/2011 | Sell | 26.62 | 20,962 |
8/15/2011 | Buy | 23.11 | 23,712 |
8/22/2011 | Sell | 24.22 | 24,837 |
8/29/2011 | Buy | 22.50 | 26,587 |
9/5/2011 | Sell | 22.50 | 26,573 |
9/12/2011 | Buy | 24.95 | 23,666 |
9/19/2011 | Sell | 26.52 | 25,141 |
9/26/2011 | Buy | 24.95 | 26,615 |
10/3/2011 | Sell | 27.31 | 29,119 |
10/17/2011 | Buy | 27.87 | 28,508 |
12/5/2011 | Sell | 30.44 | 31,122 |
12/12/2011 | Buy | 28.09 | 33,511 |
12/19/2011 | Sell | 27.66 | 32,984 |
12/26/2011 | Buy | 28.94 | 31,444 |
1/2/2012 | Sell | 27.00 | 29,322 |
1/9/2012 | Buy | 26.62 | 29,721 |
1/16/2012 | Sell | 26.81 | 29,919 |
1/23/2012 | Buy | 29.49 | 26,914 |
4/9/2012 | Sell | 33.41 | 30,478 |
4/16/2012 | Buy | 32.86 | 30,965 |
4/23/2012 | Sell | 33.27 | 31,338 |
4/30/2012 | Buy | 31.96 | 32,558 |
5/7/2012 | Sell | 31.92 | 32,503 |
5/14/2012 | Buy | 27.58 | 36,908 |
5/21/2012 | Sell | 30.01 | 40,146 |
5/28/2012 | Buy | 28.03 | 42,781 |
6/4/2012 | Sell | 30.31 | 46,246 |
6/11/2012 | Buy | 29.94 | 46,797 |
6/18/2012 | Sell | 33.94 | 53,035 |
6/25/2012 | Buy | 31.35 | 57,068 |
7/2/2012 | Sell | 30.94 | 56,308 |
7/9/2012 | Buy | 34.32 | 50,143 |
7/16/2012 | Sell | 31.05 | 45,351 |
7/23/2012 | Buy | 29.51 | 47,586 |
7/30/2012 | Sell | 27.55 | 44,412 |
8/6/2012 | Buy | 29.69 | 40,948 |
8/13/2012 | Sell | 30.15 | 41,568 |
8/20/2012 | Buy | 29.57 | 42,354 |
8/27/2012 | Sell | 28.52 | 40,836 |
9/3/2012 | Buy | 29.20 | 39,848 |
9/10/2012 | Sell | 32.35 | 44,133 |
9/24/2012 | Buy | 29.50 | 48,007 |
10/1/2012 | Sell | 28.86 | 46,952 |
10/8/2012 | Buy | 28.02 | 48,304 |
10/15/2012 | Sell | 27.99 | 48,239 |
10/22/2012 | Buy | 27.70 | 48,724 |
10/29/2012 | Sell | 29.80 | 52,404 |
11/12/2012 | Buy | 32.07 | 48,398 |
1/7/2013 | Sell | 33.08 | 49,909 |
1/14/2013 | Buy | 34.56 | 47,662 |
2/18/2013 | Sell | 36.15 | 49,841 |
2/25/2013 | Buy | 34.77 | 51,729 |
3/4/2013 | Sell | 38.87 | 57,815 |
3/11/2013 | Buy | 35.30 | 63,111 |
3/18/2013 | Sell | 37.10 | 66,315 |
4/8/2013 | Buy | 43.50 | 54,861 |
10/7/2013 | Sell | 175.00 | 220,692 |
10/14/2013 | Buy | 183.28 | 210,236 |
10/21/2013 | Sell | 170.18 | 195,196 |
10/28/2013 | Buy | 165.00 | 201,123 |
11/4/2013 | Sell | 141.00 | 171,855 |
11/11/2013 | Buy | 135.27 | 178,825 |
11/18/2013 | Sell | 124.50 | 164,573 |
11/25/2013 | Buy | 126.35 | 162,114 |
12/2/2013 | Sell | 137.00 | 175,764 |
12/9/2013 | Buy | 148.48 | 161,022 |
12/16/2013 | Sell | 144.85 | 157,071 |
12/23/2013 | Buy | 151.12 | 150,258 |
12/30/2013 | Sell | 150.00 | 149,131 |
1/6/2014 | Buy | 145.78 | 153,312 |
1/13/2014 | Sell | 171.24 | 180,074 |
1/27/2014 | Buy | 182.89 | 167,809 |
3/24/2014 | Sell | 216.50 | 198,633 |
3/31/2014 | Buy | 205.81 | 208,427 |
4/7/2014 | Sell | 207.60 | 210,226 |
4/14/2014 | Buy | 197.08 | 220,865 |
4/21/2014 | Sell | 200.00 | 224,123 |
4/28/2014 | Buy | 209.48 | 213,486 |
5/5/2014 | Sell | 183.87 | 187,372 |
5/12/2014 | Buy | 190.72 | 180,377 |
5/19/2014 | Sell | 208.52 | 197,198 |
6/2/2014 | Buy | 207.95 | 197,723 |
6/9/2014 | Sell | 206.76 | 196,578 |
6/16/2014 | Buy | 229.51 | 174,934 |
7/7/2014 | Sell | 219.99 | 167,664 |
7/14/2014 | Buy | 217.25 | 169,738 |
7/21/2014 | Sell | 224.25 | 175,193 |
7/28/2014 | Buy | 234.38 | 167,265 |
9/15/2014 | Sell | 255.00 | 181,967 |
9/22/2014 | Buy | 244.00 | 189,802 |
9/29/2014 | Sell | 259.13 | 201,558 |
10/6/2014 | Buy | 238.57 | 217,536 |
10/13/2014 | Sell | 226.72 | 206,717 |
10/20/2014 | Buy | 234.25 | 199,837 |
10/27/2014 | Sell | 243.00 | 207,287 |
11/3/2014 | Buy | 239.11 | 210,592 |
11/10/2014 | Sell | 257.49 | 226,766 |
11/17/2014 | Buy | 245.20 | 237,575 |
11/24/2014 | Sell | 241.16 | 233,647 |
12/1/2014 | Buy | 221.54 | 252,641 |
12/8/2014 | Sell | 209.29 | 238,658 |
12/15/2014 | Buy | 220.00 | 226,431 |
12/22/2014 | Sell | 226.90 | 233,519 |
12/29/2014 | Buy | 214.55 | 246,215 |
1/5/2015 | Sell | 203.05 | 233,004 |
1/12/2015 | Buy | 193.87 | 243,524 |
1/19/2015 | Sell | 201.83 | 253,509 |
1/26/2015 | Buy | 203.97 | 250,807 |
2/2/2015 | Sell | 215.38 | 264,823 |
2/9/2015 | Buy | 205.70 | 276,711 |
2/16/2015 | Sell | 215.66 | 290,095 |
2/23/2015 | Buy | 202.70 | 307,514 |
3/2/2015 | Sell | 194.39 | 294,893 |
3/9/2015 | Buy | 192.00 | 298,505 |
3/16/2015 | Sell | 198.50 | 308,597 |
3/23/2015 | Buy | 185.85 | 328,249 |
3/30/2015 | Sell | 198.00 | 349,694 |
4/13/2015 | Buy | 206.78 | 334,173 |
7/27/2015 | Sell | 266.29 | 430,333 |
8/3/2015 | Buy | 238.15 | 475,794 |
8/10/2015 | Sell | 255.56 | 510,563 |
8/17/2015 | Buy | 202.79 | 615,974 |
8/24/2015 | Sell | 245.62 | 746,055 |
9/7/2015 | Buy | 251.10 | 729,396 |
9/14/2015 | Sell | 263.98 | 766,796 |
9/21/2015 | Buy | 257.35 | 786,041 |
9/28/2015 | Sell | 248.84 | 760,034 |
10/5/2015 | Buy | 222.99 | 838,974 |
10/12/2015 | Sell | 226.50 | 852,166 |
10/19/2015 | Buy | 211.38 | 909,038 |
10/26/2015 | Sell | 208.92 | 898,445 |
11/2/2015 | Buy | 232.99 | 794,920 |
11/9/2015 | Sell | 206.09 | 703,128 |
11/16/2015 | Buy | 217.35 | 664,697 |
11/23/2015 | Sell | 231.79 | 708,843 |
12/7/2015 | Buy | 217.51 | 752,500 |
12/14/2015 | Sell | 231.69 | 801,543 |
12/21/2015 | Buy | 231.49 | 802,221 |
12/28/2015 | Sell | 230.72 | 799,538 |
1/4/2016 | Buy | 214.01 | 857,431 |
1/11/2016 | Sell | 208.71 | 836,183 |
1/18/2016 | Buy | 200.06 | 870,825 |
1/25/2016 | Sell | 188.76 | 821,624 |
2/1/2016 | Buy | 157.10 | 959,417 |
2/8/2016 | Sell | 158.70 | 969,175 |
2/15/2016 | Buy | 170.12 | 899,419 |
2/22/2016 | Sell | 192.40 | 1,017,199 |
2/29/2016 | Buy | 197.68 | 989,270 |
5/2/2016 | Sell | 215.72 | 1,079,536 |
5/9/2016 | Buy | 208.15 | 1,117,404 |
5/16/2016 | Sell | 219.87 | 1,180,306 |
5/23/2016 | Buy | 223.04 | 1,163,275 |
5/30/2016 | Sell | 218.00 | 1,136,975 |
6/6/2016 | Buy | 219.50 | 1,129,138 |
6/13/2016 | Sell | 219.50 | 1,129,124 |
6/20/2016 | Buy | 190.86 | 1,276,436 |
6/27/2016 | Sell | 209.73 | 1,402,621 |
7/18/2016 | Buy | 222.27 | 1,318,743 |
8/1/2016 | Sell | 228.00 | 1,352,725 |
8/8/2016 | Buy | 226.02 | 1,364,458 |
8/15/2016 | Sell | 224.17 | 1,353,276 |
8/22/2016 | Buy | 220.15 | 1,377,530 |
8/29/2016 | Sell | 199.02 | 1,245,301 |
9/5/2016 | Buy | 195.00 | 1,270,441 |
9/12/2016 | Sell | 207.00 | 1,348,608 |
9/19/2016 | Buy | 206.50 | 1,351,851 |
9/26/2016 | Sell | 212.30 | 1,389,807 |
10/3/2016 | Buy | 201.35 | 1,461,476 |
10/10/2016 | Sell | 197.05 | 1,430,251 |
10/17/2016 | Buy | 201.00 | 1,401,567 |
10/24/2016 | Sell | 202.49 | 1,411,942 |
10/31/2016 | Buy | 193.59 | 1,473,987 |
11/7/2016 | Sell | 188.00 | 1,431,411 |
11/14/2016 | Buy | 185.04 | 1,453,934 |
11/21/2016 | Sell | 195.48 | 1,535,952 |
11/28/2016 | Buy | 182.51 | 1,637,847 |
12/5/2016 | Sell | 192.80 | 1,730,176 |
12/12/2016 | Buy | 202.49 | 1,643,205 |
2/27/2017 | Sell | 247.91 | 2,011,774 |
3/6/2017 | Buy | 244.82 | 2,036,835 |
3/13/2017 | Sell | 260.60 | 2,168,106 |
3/20/2017 | Buy | 260.60 | 2,168,092 |
7/3/2017 | Sell | 312.90 | 2,603,194 |
7/10/2017 | Buy | 325.54 | 2,498,020 |
7/17/2017 | Sell | 330.24 | 2,534,071 |
7/24/2017 | Buy | 335.50 | 2,493,695 |
7/31/2017 | Sell | 357.35 | 2,656,087 |
8/14/2017 | Buy | 345.82 | 2,741,773 |
8/21/2017 | Sell | 347.28 | 2,753,334 |
8/28/2017 | Buy | 353.80 | 2,701,628 |
9/5/2017 | Sell | 351.35 | 2,682,905 |
9/11/2017 | Buy | 380.25 | 2,462,211 |
9/18/2017 | Sell | 353.15 | 2,286,718 |
9/25/2017 | Buy | 342.52 | 2,355,536 |
10/2/2017 | Sell | 349.65 | 2,404,555 |
10/9/2017 | Buy | 353.76 | 2,376,276 |
10/16/2017 | Sell | 349.88 | 2,350,200 |
10/23/2017 | Buy | 319.18 | 2,556,403 |
10/30/2017 | Sell | 307.00 | 2,458,836 |
11/6/2017 | Buy | 300.13 | 2,513,845 |
11/13/2017 | Sell | 313.79 | 2,628,245 |
11/20/2017 | Buy | 313.25 | 2,632,754 |
11/27/2017 | Sell | 306.50 | 2,576,009 |
12/4/2017 | Buy | 314.63 | 2,507,665 |
12/11/2017 | Sell | 344.90 | 2,748,909 |
12/18/2017 | Buy | 323.83 | 2,916,827 |
12/26/2017 | Sell | 312.00 | 2,810,257 |
1/2/2018 | Buy | 316.00 | 2,774,214 |
1/8/2018 | Sell | 337.54 | 2,963,303 |
1/16/2018 | Buy | 349.40 | 2,859,169 |
2/5/2018 | Sell | 316.13 | 2,586,904 |
2/12/2018 | Buy | 334.47 | 2,436,813 |
2/20/2018 | Sell | 353.50 | 2,575,444 |
2/26/2018 | Buy | 332.39 | 2,729,228 |
3/5/2018 | Sell | 328.61 | 2,698,176 |
3/12/2018 | Buy | 316.50 | 2,797,596 |
3/19/2018 | Sell | 307.34 | 2,716,615 |
3/26/2018 | Buy | 256.26 | 3,168,103 |
4/2/2018 | Sell | 300.37 | 3,713,414 |
4/16/2018 | Buy | 291.29 | 3,825,654 |
4/23/2018 | Sell | 293.61 | 3,856,110 |
4/30/2018 | Buy | 297.50 | 3,805,006 |
5/7/2018 | Sell | 303.32 | 3,879,430 |
5/14/2018 | Buy | 281.33 | 4,160,666 |
5/21/2018 | Sell | 278.51 | 4,118,946 |
5/29/2018 | Buy | 294.34 | 3,884,819 |
6/4/2018 | Sell | 322.51 | 4,256,605 |
6/18/2018 | Buy | 330.12 | 4,156,151 |
7/2/2018 | Sell | 311.99 | 3,927,884 |
7/9/2018 | Buy | 311.71 | 3,931,395 |
7/16/2018 | Sell | 301.84 | 3,806,897 |
7/23/2018 | Buy | 295.90 | 3,881,800 |
7/30/2018 | Sell | 345.46 | 4,531,945 |
8/13/2018 | Buy | 291.70 | 5,237,186 |
8/20/2018 | Sell | 318.00 | 5,709,362 |
8/27/2018 | Buy | 296.94 | 6,087,458 |
9/4/2018 | Sell | 273.26 | 5,601,990 |
9/10/2018 | Buy | 290.04 | 5,257,976 |
9/17/2018 | Sell | 298.48 | 5,410,966 |