Gold Miners Bull 3X (NUGT) Signals-Weekly

These Gold Miners Bull 3X (NUGT) signals traded as directed would have performed around 1913.6 times better than short-hold with an ROI of 190,993% for the period 06-Dec-10 to 21-Sep-18

NUGT Signals Weekly

The trading signals for Gold Miners Bull 3X (NUGT) were selected for their reward/risk and parameter sensitivity characteristics. Backtests don't always generate reliable signals which can be counted on moving forward but many traders find value in knowing what buy and sell signals would have worked well in the past.

Returns for the Gold Miners Bull 3X (NUGT) signals

For the 407 week (7.8 year) period from Dec 6 2010 to Sep 21 2018, these signals for Gold Miners Bull 3X (NUGT) traded both long and short would have yielded $19,099,299 in profits from a $10,000 initial investment, an annualized return of 164.1%. Traded long only (no short selling) the signals would have returned $260,371, an annualized return of 52.8%. 23.2% of time was spent holding stock long. The return would have been $9,981 (an annualized return of 9.3%) if you had shorted the stock for the same period.

Signals and Trades

Not all signals are acted upon and signals are often reinforced in this type of strategy. If you are long in the security, buy signals are not acted on, for example. Similarly if you are short you must ignore sell signals. There were 68 buy signals and 86 sell signals for this particular NUGT strategy .These led to 39 round trip long trades of which 27 were profitable, and 39 short trades of which 25 were profitable. This is a weekly strategy; weekly OHLC data is used to derive all signals and there is at most one buy and sell signal and one trade per week.

Drawdown and Reward/Risk

Drawdown (the worst case loss for an single entry and exit into the strategy) was 47% for long-short and 46% for long only. This compares to 28% for short-hold. The reward/risk for the trading long and short was 3.13 compared to 0.28 for short-hold, a factor of 11.1 improvement. If traded long only, the reward/risk was 1.03. We use drawdown plus 5% as our risk metric, and annualized return as the reward metric.

The backtests assume a commission per trade of $7. Returns have been adjusted for the worst case effects of 2 dividends

Click here to see the list of Trades

Week of signal Buy or Sell Price L&S Value Next Open
2/14/2011 Sell 7,474.00 9,993
8/8/2011 Buy 6,890.00 10,729
8/22/2011 Sell 7,672.00 11,967
10/24/2011 Buy 6,896.00 12,824
11/28/2011 Sell 6,022.00 11,481
1/23/2012 Buy 5,194.00 11,624
2/20/2012 Sell 4,916.00 11,415
5/21/2012 Buy 2,296.00 18,033
5/28/2012 Sell 2,584.00 19,663
8/20/2012 Buy 2,530.00 20,108
9/3/2012 Sell 2,970.00 23,535
9/10/2012 Buy 3,598.00 18,761
9/17/2012 Sell 3,630.00 18,696
4/22/2013 Buy 476.00 36,481
5/27/2013 Sell 460.00 33,738
7/8/2013 Buy 226.40 50,767
7/15/2013 Sell 298.00 66,926
7/22/2013 Buy 314.00 63,964
8/12/2013 Sell 373.20 75,242
9/16/2013 Buy 220.44 102,776
10/21/2013 Sell 226.36 108,860
12/9/2013 Buy 107.44 169,993
12/30/2013 Sell 123.56 190,935
1/13/2014 Buy 144.64 153,092
1/20/2014 Sell 147.84 161,836
2/10/2014 Buy 201.16 105,943
3/10/2014 Sell 225.80 116,112
6/9/2014 Buy 142.20 160,922
6/16/2014 Sell 174.20 194,873
10/6/2014 Buy 81.56 314,011
11/17/2014 Sell 61.16 223,820
12/1/2014 Buy 49.44 277,700
1/5/2015 Sell 63.96 345,008
1/12/2015 Buy 74.72 306,155
1/19/2015 Sell 66.44 255,141
3/16/2015 Buy 45.04 343,896
3/23/2015 Sell 39.48 295,653
4/27/2015 Buy 49.64 229,992
5/11/2015 Sell 53.84 238,116
8/10/2015 Buy 15.36 435,931
8/17/2015 Sell 17.28 459,308
9/14/2015 Buy 14.04 522,106
10/5/2015 Sell 19.74 766,830
11/30/2015 Buy 12.57 1,005,829
1/4/2016 Sell 11.56 961,562
1/25/2016 Buy 10.27 1,101,500
2/1/2016 Sell 18.64 1,940,208
2/8/2016 Buy 22.75 1,289,545
2/22/2016 Sell 21.96 1,459,697
2/29/2016 Buy 24.29 1,353,655
3/14/2016 Sell 26.17 1,405,630
4/4/2016 Buy 28.50 1,370,928
4/11/2016 Sell 32.32 1,451,768
4/18/2016 Buy 32.57 1,471,037
4/25/2016 Sell 49.20 2,175,762
5/30/2016 Buy 39.96 2,561,343
6/6/2016 Sell 45.97 2,972,913
6/20/2016 Buy 45.58 3,083,235
6/27/2016 Sell 60.56 3,983,540
7/25/2016 Buy 64.20 3,703,520
8/1/2016 Sell 61.60 3,592,239
9/19/2016 Buy 40.52 4,914,330
10/17/2016 Sell 29.42 3,500,703
10/31/2016 Buy 29.76 3,132,347
11/14/2016 Sell 35.16 4,088,083
12/26/2016 Buy 30.56 4,756,036
1/3/2017 Sell 39.64 5,996,463
1/30/2017 Buy 47.56 5,040,504
2/6/2017 Sell 50.08 5,052,597
3/13/2017 Buy 35.68 6,571,044
4/10/2017 Sell 44.76 8,160,916
5/8/2017 Buy 34.61 10,561,117
5/15/2017 Sell 36.03 10,422,256
8/28/2017 Buy 40.17 9,495,657
9/5/2017 Sell 40.01 9,187,924
2/12/2018 Buy 26.94 11,714,228
4/9/2018 Sell 27.41 12,433,631
9/17/2018 Buy 13.49 19,109,299
9/24/2018 Last 13.75 19,109,299

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